Inflation Expectations and Consumer Spending at the Zero Bound: Micro Evidence
Inflation Expectations and Consumer Spending at the Zero Bound: Micro Evidence
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通胀预期和零界消费者支出：微观证据
DOI：
10.1111/ecin.12176
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Shusaku Nishiguchi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hibiki Ichiue;Shusaku Nishiguchi
Type=“main”XML：id=“ecin12176-abs-0001”>；标准理论模型预测，在零利率下限，较高的通胀预期会产生更大的当前消费者支出。然而，最近使用美国微观数据的实证研究发现，这种关系的结果是负面的。我们使用长期经历低利率的日本的微观数据来估计具有各种控制措施的有序概率模型。我们发现有力的证据支持标准模型的预测：预期通胀率较高的受访者倾向于表明，与一年前相比，他们的家庭实际支出有所增加，但未来将减少。对于资产持有者和老年人来说，这种关系似乎更牢固。(Jel E20、E21、E30、E31、E50、E52)
type="main" xml:id="ecin12176-abs-0001"> Standard theoretical models predict that higher inflation expectations generate greater current consumer spending at the zero lower bound of interest rates. However, recent empirical studies using U.S. micro data find negative results for this relationship. We use micro data for Japan, which has experienced low interest rates for a prolonged period, to estimate ordered probit models with a variety of controls. We find robust evidence supporting the prediction of standard models: survey respondents with higher expected inflation tend to indicate that their household has increased real spending compared with 1 year ago but will decrease it in the future. This relationship appears to be stronger for asset holders and older people . ( JEL E20, E21, E30, E31, E50, E52)