Spatiotemporal distributions of reported cases of the avian influenza H5N1 (bird flu) in Southern China in early 2004
Spatiotemporal distributions of reported cases of the avian influenza H5N1 (bird flu) in Southern China in early 2004
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DOI：
10.1637/7597-040506.1
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发表时间：
2006-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
1.4
通讯作者：
Scott, Kara E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Oyana, Tonny J.;Dai, Dajun;Scott, Kara E.
本研究调查了2004年初中国南方报告的H5N1禽流感（禽流感）病例的时空分布。中国农业部和世界卫生组织收集了6周内（2004年1月19日至2004年3月9日）的49例H5N1禽流感病例。地理信息系统（GIS）技术与统计技术相结合，用于分析禽流感报告病例的时空变化。利用奥登方向法，我们还探讨了研究期间个体水平禽流感病例的时空相互作用。流行病学禽流感爆发的高峰期（时间聚集）发生在第三周和第四周之间。尽管我们观察到H5N1禽流感病例主要呈东北-西南分布，但这些病例的平均“前进方向”没有显着的时空关联。定向发现与东亚主要候鸟迁徙路线非常一致，但由于该地区监测和报告系统薄弱，研究结果值得进一步评估。
This study investigates spatiotemporal distributions of reported cases of the avian influenza H5N1 (bird flu) in Southern China in early 2004. Forty-nine cases of the avian influenza H5N1 covering a 6-week period (January 19, 2004, through March 9, 2004) were compiled from the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and the World Health Organization. Geographic information systems (GIS) techniques combined with statistical techniques were used to analyze the spatiotemporal variation of reported cases of avian influenza. Using Oden's direction method, we also explored the spatiotemporal interaction of individual-level avian influenza cases during the study duration. The peak period (temporal clustering) for the epidemiological avian influenza outbreak occurred between the third and fourth weeks. Although we observed a major northeast-southwest distribution of the avian influenza H5N1 cases, there was no significant spatiotemporal association in average "direction of advance" of these cases. The directional finding is very consistent with the major migratory bird routes in East Asia, but owing to weak surveillance and reporting systems in the region, the study findings warrant further evaluation.