Precipitation change over the past 1000 years recorded in Sabina Tibetica Tree Rings in Lake Qinghai Basin
Precipitation change over the past 1000 years recorded in Sabina Tibetica Tree Rings in Lake Qinghai Basin
复制标题
DOI：
10.18307/2009.0418
复制
发表时间：
2009
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Shi Xing-he;Qin Ning-sheng;S. Xuemei;Wang Qing-chun;L. Yihua
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Shi Xing-he;Qin Ning-sheng;S. Xuemei;Wang Qing-chun;L. Yihua
根据青海湖流域天峻县采集的1061年树轮样本，构建了西藏柏树年轮宽度年表。响应函数分析表明年表对年降水量较为敏感，因此本文重建了年降水量序列。采用交叉验证方法对校准方程进行稳定性检验，结果表明方程稳定，重建的年降水量变化可靠、具有代表性。降水量偏少的年份有6个，分别为1001～1060年、1131～1320年、1411～1510年、1691～1740年、1811～1850年、1911～1940年；降水量偏多的年份有7个，分别为961～1000年、1061年到1110年、1321年到1410年、1511年到1650年、1741年到1790年、1881年到1910年和1941年到2000年。突然降水的发生频率为每53年一次。重建的降水序列显示，13世纪到14世纪为不稳定期，12世纪为稳定期， 17世纪和20世纪。
Tree-ring width chronologies of Sabina Tibetica were constructed based on tree-rings of 1061-year sampled in Tianjun county of Lake Qinghai Basin. The response function analysis showed that the chronologies were sensitive to the annual precipitation so that the paper reconstructed annual precipitation series. The cross-validation method was used to check in the stability of the calibration equation, and the result indicated that the equation was stable and the variation of reconstructed annual precipitation was dependable and representative. There were six years showing precipitation below normal stage, which were periods of 1001 to 1060, 1131 to 1320, 1411 to 1510, 1691 to 1740, 1811 to 1850 and 1911 to 1940. There were seven years that showed precipitation above normal stage, which were period of 961 to 1000, 1061 to 1110, 1321 to 1410, 1511 to 1650, 1741 to 1790, 1881 to 1910 and 1941 to 2000. The occurrence of abrupt precipitation was once a time every 53 years.Reconstructed precipitation series showed an unstable period from the 13th to 14th centuries, but stable periods in the 12th, 17th and 20th centuries.