The effects of congestion charging on road traffic casualties: A causal analysis using difference-in-difference estimation
The effects of congestion charging on road traffic casualties: A causal analysis using difference-in-difference estimation
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DOI：
10.1016/j.aap.2012.02.013
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发表时间：
2012-11-01
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Majumdar, Arnab
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li, Haojie;Graham, Daniel J.;Majumdar, Arnab
本文旨在确定的影响，伦敦拥堵费的道路伤亡在中央伦敦收费区。它开发了一个完整的差分（DID）模型，该模型与广义线性模型（如泊松和负二项回归模型）集成。模型中包含协变量，以调整违反平行趋势假设的因素，这在DID模型中至关重要。较低的贝叶斯信息准则值表明，全差分模型在评估道路事故与伦敦拥堵费以及其他社会经济因素之间的关系方面表现良好。在调整了时间趋势和区域效应后，结果表明，伦敦拥堵费的引入对道路伤亡的发生率有显着的影响。拥堵费减少了车祸总数，但与两轮车事故的增加有关。(C)2012爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
This paper aims to identify the impacts of the London congestion charge on road casualties within the central London charging zone. It develops a full difference-in-difference (DID) model that is integrated with generalized linear models, such as Poisson and Negative Binomial regression models. Covariates are included in the model to adjust for factors that violate the parallel trend assumption, which is critical in the DID model. The lower Bayesian Information Criterion value suggests that the full difference-in-difference model performs well in evaluating the relationship between road accidents and the London congestion charge as well as other socio-economic factors. After adjusting for a time trend and regional effects, the results show that the introduction of the London congestion charge has a significant influence on the incidence of road casualties. The congestion charge reduces the total number of car accidents, but is associated with an increase in two wheeled vehicle accidents. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.