Energy and carbon intensity: A study on the cross-country industrial shift from China to India and SE Asia
Energy and carbon intensity: A study on the cross-country industrial shift from China to India and SE Asia
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DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.04.132
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发表时间：
2018-09
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
D. Pappas;K. Chalvatzis;D. Guan;Alexis Ioannidis
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Pappas;K. Chalvatzis;D. Guan;Alexis Ioannidis
各种工业部门可能从中国转移到印度和东南亚地区国家，为制造商提供了低成本机会，但也带来了能源需求和二氧化碳排放上升的风险。由于印度和东南亚国家的工业排放强度高于中国，工业产出的跨国转移将为控制排放带来挑战。我们发现，尽管机械制造以及造纸和纸浆行业的排放强度存在趋同性，但所有其他工业部门却存在显着差异。印度钢铁、纺织和皮革行业的排放强度是中国的两倍，水泥行业的排放强度几乎是中国的三倍；印尼非金属矿、纺织皮革行业排放强度几乎是中国的两倍，化学石化行业高出中国50%。我们证明，预期的较高排放量是由受援国较高的碳燃料混合强度及其工业活动中较高的能源强度造成的。虽然产业转移可能会给某些国家带来经济上的好处，但它将对其能源供应安全和遵守《巴黎协定》承诺的能力构成相当大的威胁。
The potential relocation of various industrial sectors from China to India and countries of the SE Asian region presents low cost opportunities for manufacturers, but also risks rising for energy demand and CO2emissions. A cross-country shift of industrial output would present challenges for controlling emissions since India and SE Asian countries present higher industrial emissions intensity than China. We find that although there is a convergence in emissions intensity in the machinery manufacturing and paper and pulp industries, there are significant variations in all other industrial sectors. Indian emissions intensity is double that of China in the iron and steel and textile and leather industries and almost triple in the cement industry; Indonesian emissions intensity is almost double that of China in the non-metallic minerals and textile and leather industries and 50% higher in the chemical and petrochemical industry. We demonstrate that the expected higher emissions are driven by both a higher carbon fuel mix intensity in the recipient countries and higher energy intensity in their industrial activities. While industrial relocation could benefit certain countries financially, it would impose considerable threats to their energy supply security and capacity to comply with their Paris Agreement commitments.