Geoengineering the Climate: Science, Governance and Uncertainty
Geoengineering the Climate: Science, Governance and Uncertainty
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发表时间：
2010-09
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通讯作者：
G. Davies
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作者：
G. Davies
英国皇家学会最近发布了一份关于地球工程的报告--故意操纵气候。他们对技术和可能性的调查是有用和清晰的，并探索了这一领域政策的一些复杂性。道德风险--研究地球工程是否真的危险，因为它分散了对减排的注意力--副作用--这些副作用是否可以预测或计算出来，在地球工程情景下是否可能比非地球工程情景更糟糕--以及治理--单方面操纵气候的可能性和多边气候管理的问题--都提到了。地球工程学可能令人恐惧，但一些技术，特别是硫磺气雾剂的使用，每年仅需数百亿美元就能将全球气温恢复到工业化前的水平。与报告结论中有些冷淡的做法相反，这是值得高度重视和优先处理的事情。它很可能在副作用问题上失败，或者因成功的减排而变得多余，但现在说还为时过早。根据目前的证据，地球工程技术，如硫基技术，是近年来气候政策和讨论的一些最重要的贡献，任何严肃的全球变暖政策办法都需要考虑其潜力和风险。
The Royal Society has recently published a report on geoengineering - deliberately manipulating the climate. Their survey of the techniques and possibilities is useful and clear, and explores some of the complexities of policy in this area. The issues of moral hazard - whether researching geoengineering is actually dangerous because it distracts from emissions reduction - of side effects - whether these can be predicted, or calculated, and whether they are likely to be worse under a geoengineering scenario than a non-geoengineering scenario - and governance - the possibility of unilateral climate manipulation and the problems of multilateral climate management - are all touched upon. Geoengineering is potentially frightening, but some techniques, notably the use of sulphur aerosols, offer to return the global temperature to pre-industrial levels for just a few tens of billions of dollars a year. Contrary to the somewhat lukewarm approach of the report's conclusions this is something that deserves considerable attention and priority. It may well founder on the problems of side-effects, or be rendered superflous by successful emissions reduction, but it is still too early to say. On the basis of current evidence, geoengineering techniques such as the sulphur-based one are some of the most important contributions to climate policy and discussion of recent years and any serious policy approach to global warming requires engagement with their potential and risks.