Virtual Bass Model and the left-hand data-truncation bias in diffusion of innovation studies
Virtual Bass Model and the left-hand data-truncation bias in diffusion of innovation studies
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ijresmar.2006.01.008
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发表时间：
2006-03-01
影响因子：
7
通讯作者：
Bass, PI
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jiang, ZG;Bass, FM;Bass, PI
Bass模型最重要的应用之一是“类比猜测”——Bass模型对类似产品的参数估计可以用来预测新产品的扩散模式。然而，基于左侧截断数据的估计将有偏差，除非注意调整偏差。我们证明了历史销售数据中普遍存在的左截断，并提出了一种通过虚拟低音模型处理偏差的方法。我们用这个模型建立了一个参数估计数据库，可以用于“类比猜测”。(c) 2006 Elsevier B.V.版权所有
One of the most important applications of the Bass model is "guessing by analogy" - the parameter estimates of the Bass model for analogous products can be used to predict the diffusion pattern of a new product. However, estimates based on left-hand truncated data will be biased unless care is taken to adjust for the bias. We demonstrate the prevalence of left truncation in historical sales data and present a method for dealing with the bias by the Virtual Bass Model. We use the model to develop a database of parameter estimates that may be used in "guessing by analogy." (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.