Reducing the effects of demand uncertainty in single-newsvendor multi-retailer supply chains
Reducing the effects of demand uncertainty in single-newsvendor multi-retailer supply chains
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DOI：
10.1080/00207543.2018.1501164
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发表时间：
2018-07
影响因子：
9.2
通讯作者：
M. Darwish;M. Alkhedher;Abdulrahman Alenezi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Darwish;M. Alkhedher;Abdulrahman Alenezi
由于当今全球市场的激烈竞争，企业被迫为客户提供高水平的服务。通常，供应商在销售季节开始时生产或订购足够的数量，以确保整个季节的合理服务水平。然而，由于需求的概率性质，销售季节开始时的高服务水平并不能保证在消费过程中提供适当的服务水平。因此，在销售旺季期间调整服务水平非常重要，忽视这种调整可能会给企业带来严重后果，例如订单取消导致利润损失以及公司市场份额下降。在本文中，我们提出了一个具有单一供应商和多个零售商的报童供应链模型，其中供应商有两次订购机会。在销售季节开始时，零售商向供应商订购一定数量，以便达到预定的服务水平。在第二次订购时，零售商更多地了解需求模式，并使用新的可用需求数据通过贝叶斯方法更新即将到来的需求。根据更新的需求，零售商评估销售季节剩余时间的新服务水平。如果此服务水平低于特定值，则订购第二批。我们开发一般需求分配模型，并确定销售季节开始时和第二次订购机会时的最佳数量。
Due to fierce competition in today’s global market, businesses are forced to provide customers with high service levels. Typically, vendors produce or order sufficient quantities at the beginning of a selling season to ensure reasonable service levels for the whole season. However, due to the probabilistic nature of demand, high service levels at the beginning of a selling season does not guarantee appropriate service levels during the course of consuming the item. Thus, revision of service levels during a selling season is important and ignoring such revision may lead to serious consequences for businesses like profit loss due to cancelled orders and reduction of the market share of the company. In this paper, we propose a model for a newsvendor supply chain with single vendor and multiple retailers where the vendor has two-ordering opportunities. At the beginning of a selling season, the retailer orders from a vendor a quantity such that a predetermined service level is achieved. At the second-ordering instant, the retailer learns more about the demand pattern and uses the new available demand data to update the coming demand using Bayesian approach. Based on the updated demand, the retailer evaluates the new service level for the remaining portion of the selling season. If this service level is lower than a specific value, a second batch is ordered. We develop the model for general demand distribution and determine the optimal quantities at the beginning of the selling season and at the second-ordering opportunity.