Strength of Evidence, Judged Probability, and Choice Under Uncertainty
Strength of Evidence, Judged Probability, and Choice Under Uncertainty
复制标题
证据强度、判断概率和不确定性下的选择
作者：
C. Fox
本文在研究对象中追踪了评估的证据强度、概率判断和不确定性下的决策之间的关系。本研究依赖于支持理论提供的理论框架（Tversky & Koehler, 1994; Rottenstreich & Tversky, 1997），一种不确定条件下判断的非外延模型。职业篮球迷（N = 50）判断8支球队、4个分区和2个分区中每一支球队赢得nba总冠军的概率。此外，参与者还对每支球队的相对实力进行了评级，判断了在决赛中某一特定组合的情况下，某支球队赢得冠军的可能性，对冠军得主的前景进行了定价，并在可能性前景之间做出了选择。数据符合支持理论的主要原则，评估证据强度、假设支持、判断概率和不确定性下的选择之间的预测关系也很好。
This paper traces, within subjects, the relationship between assessed strength of evidence, judgments of probability, and decisions under uncertainty. The investigation relies on the theoretical framework provided by support theory (Tversky & Koehler, 1994; Rottenstreich & Tversky, 1997), a nonextensional model of judgment under uncertainty. Fans of professional basketball (N = 50) judged the probability that each of eight teams, four divisions, and two conferences would win the National Basketball Association championship. Additionally, participants rated the relative strength of each team, judged the probability that a given team would win the championship assuming a particular pairing in the finals, priced prospects contingent on the winner of the championship, and made choices between chance prospects. The data conformed to the major tenets of support theory, and the predicted relationships between assessed strength of evidence, hypothetical support, judged probabilities, and choices under uncertainty also held quite well.
影响因子：
5.4
作者：
Rottenstreich, Y;Tversky, A
通讯作者：
Tversky, A