Scenario Methodology for Modelling of Future Landscape Developments as Basis for Assessing Ecosystem Services
Scenario Methodology for Modelling of Future Landscape Developments as Basis for Assessing Ecosystem Services
复制标题
未来景观发展建模的情景方法作为评估生态系统服务的基础
作者：
Matthias Rosenberg;R. Syrbe;Juliane Vowinckel;U. Walz
我们密集使用的欧洲景观的生态系统为人类提供了各种自然产品和服务，并确保了基本生活和生活质量。由于这些生态系统仍在发生根本性的变化，社会的兴趣是更多地了解未来的发展及其对生态的影响。为了描述和分析这些变化，可以制定情景，并随后对生态变化进行评估。“萨克森州景观2050”项目；提出了一种构建探索性场景的方法。所提出的方法为确定景观发展的驱动力（社会文化、经济和生态条件）提供了一种可能性。它可以指出未来可能导致景观结构和过程变化的路径，并可以影响提供生态系统服务的能力。所应用技术的一个重要组成部分是将一种评估景观变化对生态系统服务的影响的方法纳入已开发的情景方法。另一个是，该方法具有很强的参与性，即利益相关者是积极整合的。该方法是一个七阶段模型，它提供了在场景开发的所有层次上整合利益相关者参与的选项。该情景框架应用于位于德国东部边界的2100平方公里的Gorlitz地区。该地区受到强烈的人口和经济变化的影响。核心问题集中在从生物多样性的角度考察景观变化。与利益相关者一起，开发了一个趋势情景和两个备选情景。景观结构的变化以故事线、地图和表格的形式表现出来。根据“文化/社会价值”和“政治控制”这两个问题领域的驱动力，我们发展了三种情景，直至2030年和2050年。它们的题目分别是“趋势”、“传统与生态”和“技术与能源”。这些设想在未来褐煤开采的程度、可再生能源的使用和农业生产的环境相容性方面有很大的不同。综上所述，将生态系统服务方法与情景技术相结合带来了新的方面。然而，这个过程变得更加复杂。对于这些情景的发展，对驱动力的精确定义是必不可少的。该项目的经验进一步表明，只有两个或最多三个关键驱动力（KDF）可以真正明智地加以区分，或者可以在它们的相互作用中加以观察。可以表明，从这些结果本身可以推导出支持理想发展或抵消不良影响的具体措施。通过将利益相关者整合到不同的工作步骤中，这些情景有助于提高对一个地区未来问题和机会的敏感性和更好的感知。
The ecosystems of our intensively used European landscapes produce a variety of natural goods and services for the benefit of humankind, and secure the basics and quality of life. Because these ecosystems are still undergoing fundamental changes, the interest of the society is to know more about future developments and their ecological impacts. To describe and analyze these changes, scenarios can be developed and an assessment of the ecological changes can be carried out subsequently. In the project "Landscape Saxony 2050"; a methodology for the construction of exploratory scenarios was worked out. The presented methodology provides a possibility to identify the driving forces (socio-cultural, economic and ecological conditions) of the landscape development. It allows to indicate possible future paths which lead to a change of structures and processes in the landscape and can influence the capability to provide ecosystem services. One essential component of the applied technique is that an approach for the assessment of the effects of the landscape changes on ecosystem services is integrated into the developed scenario methodology. Another is, that the methodology is strong designed as participatory, i.e. stakeholders are integrated actively. The method is a seven phase model which provides the option for the integration of the stakeholders' participation at all levels of scenario development. The scenario framework was applied to the district of Gorlitz, an area of 2100 sq km located at the eastern border of Germany. The region is affected by strong demographic as well as economic changes. The core issue focused on the examination of landscape change in terms of biodiversity. Together with stakeholders, a trend scenario and two alternative scenarios were developed. The changes of the landscape structure are represented in story lines, maps and tables. On basis of the driving forces of the issue areas "cultural/social values" and "political control", three scenarios were developed up to the time horizons in 2030 and 2050. They are titled "Trend", "Tradition and Ecology" and "Technology and Energy". These scenarios differ markedly in the degree of the future lignite exploitation, in the use of renewable energy and in the environmental compatibility of the agricultural production. In total, the investigation shows that the integration of the ecosystem services approach into the scenario technology has brought new aspects. However, the procedure became more complex. For the development of the scenarios a precise definition of the driving forces turned out to be essential. The experiences of the project further show that only two or at most three key driving forces (KDF) can be distinguished really sensibly or can be looked at in their interactions. It could be shown that from these results itself concrete measures can be derived which support desirable developments or counteract against undesirable effects. By the integration of stakeholders in different working steps, the scenarios can contribute to the sensitization and better perception of future problems and chances of a region.