SIMPLIFIED PREDICTION METHOD OF RESTORATION TIME IN THE BUSINESS CONTINUITY MANAGEMENT FOR PRODUCTIVE FACILITIES
SIMPLIFIED PREDICTION METHOD OF RESTORATION TIME IN THE BUSINESS CONTINUITY MANAGEMENT FOR PRODUCTIVE FACILITIES
复制标题
生产设施业务连续性管理中恢复时间的简化预测方法
DOI：
10.3130/aijs.77.783
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
S. Senna
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Yamagishi;S. Senna
Kuniaki YAMAGISHI和Syuji SENNA拥有生产设施的公司非常关注自然灾害后的早期业务恢复。恢复时间目标（RTO）是实现业务连续性管理的重要指标，但恢复时间的预测方法尚未建立。本文提出了两种简化的方法，将事件树分析的思想应用于生产设施。然而，当事件的数目较大时，事件树的计算变得困难。一般的PC机程序不能进行超过30个事件的计算。通过一系列简化场景的恢复时间评估，可以计算出三十多个事件的事件树分析。文中给出了方法的推导过程、计算精度和方法的有效性。最后介绍了将这些方法应用于一个假设工厂的计算实例。研究发现，由于其他因素的影响，恢复时间并没有变短，尽管恢复人员的数量增加，
Kuniaki YAMAGISHI and Syuji SENNA A company which has a production facility has a strong concern for early business recovery after a natural disaster. Though the “Recovery Time Objective” (RTO) is very important to carry out business continuity management, a method to predict restoration time which is necessary to decide RTO has not been established. This paper proposes two simplified methods applying the idea of an event tree analysis for productive facilities. However event tree calculation becomes difficult when the number of events is larger. Commonly used PC programs cannot do the calculation which involves over thirty events. The event tree analysis for over thirty events is able to be calculated by the restoration time evaluation of a series of scenario simplified. This paper shows the derivation of the methods, the calculation accuracy and the validity of the methods. Finally a calculation example to which these proposing methods are applied to an assumption factory is introduced. It is found that recovery time does not become short though the number of restoration staffs is larger because of influence of other factors like