Are Losses from Natural Disasters More than Just Asset Losses? The Role of Capital Aggregation, Sector Interactions, and Investment Behaviors
Are Losses from Natural Disasters More than Just Asset Losses? The Role of Capital Aggregation, Sector Interactions, and Investment Behaviors
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自然灾害造成的损失是否不仅仅是资产损失？
DOI：
10.1596/1813-9450-7885
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
A. Vogt
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Hallegatte;A. Vogt
自然灾害对福利的影响取决于其对消费的影响，而不仅仅是通常在灾后估计和报告的直接资产损失和人员损失。本文提出了一个评估与灾害相关的消费损失的框架，从对资产损失的估计入手，得出以下结论。首先，灾难摧毁部分资本存量后的产出损失，最好使用资本的平均生产率(而不是边际生产率)来估算。将经济中的资本描述为单一的同质股票的模型，与跟踪不同行业资本的模型相比，系统性地低估了灾难的产出损失。第二，灾后消费损失的净现值随着重建进程的加快而下降。在标准参数下，如果重建在一年内完成，贴现的消费损失仅比资产损失大10%，而如果重建需要10年，则高达80%。第三，对于类似规模的灾害，在资本生产率较高的地方，例如资本匮乏的发展中国家，消费损失预计会更低。这一机制可能在一定程度上弥补使贫穷国家和贫穷人民更容易遭受灾害的许多其他因素。
The welfare impact of a natural disaster depends on its effect on consumption, not only on the direct asset losses and human losses that are usually estimated and reported after disasters. This paper proposes a framework to assess disaster-related consumption losses, starting from an estimate of the asset losses, and leading to the following findings. First, output losses after a disaster destroys part of the capital stock are better estimated by using the average—not the marginal—productivity of capital. A model that describes capital in the economy as a single homogeneous stock would systematically underestimate disaster output losses, compared with a model that tracks capital in different sectors with limited reallocation options. Second, the net present value of disaster-caused consumption losses decreases when reconstruction is accelerated. With standard parameters, discounted consumption losses are only 10 percent larger than asset losses if reconstruction is completed in one year, compared with 80 percent if reconstruction takes 10 years. Third, for disasters of similar magnitude, consumption losses are expected to be lower where the productivity of capital is higher, such as in capital-scarce developing countries. This mechanism may partly compensate for the many other factors that make poor countries and poor people more vulnerable to disasters.
影响因子：
2
作者：
Toya, Hideki;Skidmore, Mark
通讯作者：
Skidmore, Mark