Impacts of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill evaluated using an end-to-end ecosystem model.
Impacts of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill evaluated using an end-to-end ecosystem model.
复制标题
使用端到端生态系统模型评估深水地平线漏油的影响。
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0190840
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Perryman H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ainsworth CH;Paris CB;Perlin N;Dornberger LN;Patterson WF 3rd;Chancellor E;Murawski S;Hollander D;Daly K;Romero IC;Coleman F;Perryman H
我们使用一个空间上明确的海洋地球化学端到端的生态系统模型，亚特兰蒂斯，模拟从深水地平线石油泄漏和随后的恢复鱼群的影响。利用与预期油浓度的剂量-反应关系来估计对鱼类生长和死亡率的影响。我们还研究了渔业关闭的影响和对招聘的影响。我们验证预测的模型，通过比较人口趋势和年龄结构之前和之后的石油泄漏与渔业独立的数据。该模型表明，招聘效果和渔业关闭对生物量动态的影响不大。然而，在假定的石油浓度和毒性水平上，对鱼类死亡率和生长率的影响很大，与观测结果相符。敏感性分析表明，在受泄漏影响最严重的地区，大型珊瑚鱼的生物量减少了25%至50%，大型底层鱼类的生物量减少更多，减少了40%至70%。对珊瑚礁和底层饲料的影响造成捕食者饥饿死亡，并增加了对浮游饲料的依赖。对食物网的影响将溢油的影响转化为远离油污地区的影响。对年龄结构的影响表明可能对渔业产量产生延迟影响。高周转率种群的恢复通常预计在10年内发生，但一些增长较慢的种群可能需要30多年才能完全恢复。
We use a spatially explicit biogeochemical end-to-end ecosystem model, Atlantis, to simulate impacts from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and subsequent recovery of fish guilds. Dose-response relationships with expected oil concentrations were utilized to estimate the impact on fish growth and mortality rates. We also examine the effects of fisheries closures and impacts on recruitment. We validate predictions of the model by comparing population trends and age structure before and after the oil spill with fisheries independent data. The model suggests that recruitment effects and fishery closures had little influence on biomass dynamics. However, at the assumed level of oil concentrations and toxicity, impacts on fish mortality and growth rates were large and commensurate with observations. Sensitivity analysis suggests the biomass of large reef fish decreased by 25% to 50% in areas most affected by the spill, and biomass of large demersal fish decreased even more, by 40% to 70%. Impacts on reef and demersal forage caused starvation mortality in predators and increased reliance on pelagic forage. Impacts on the food web translated effects of the spill far away from the oiled area. Effects on age structure suggest possible delayed impacts on fishery yields. Recovery of high-turnover populations generally is predicted to occur within 10 years, but some slower-growing populations may take 30+ years to fully recover.