La méthode des scénarios en prospective
La méthode des scénarios en prospective
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前瞻性场景方法
DOI：
10.7202/800621ar
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发表时间：
1975
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
D. Latouche
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Julien;Pierre Lamonde;D. Latouche
越来越多的情景被用作长期规划的重要组成部分。但对决策者来说，并非所有的情景都同样有效、同样有用。本研究将情景定义为“以一种合理的方式一步一步地刺激一系列事件并最终导致系统进入新状态的综合过程”。本研究考察了两种情景：探索性情景，其中探究从现在的情况发展到未来的情况；规范性情景，其中搜索从理想的未来发展到现在。对于每种类型的场景，三组理论问题进行了检查：1)价值的作用，必须明确认识和使用；2)因果关系的概念，这在一个场景中必须处理不同于“普通”的科学研究，3)时间的问题和需要打破事件之间存在的线性概念的联系。最后，本研究考察了一些实用的工具和标准（连贯性、互动性……），这些工具和标准用于构建和判断情景。
Increasingly scenarios are used as an important component of long-term planning. But not all scenarios are equally valid and equally useful for the decision-maker. Defining a scenario as a "synthetic process which stimulates step by step and in a plausible fashion a series of events which eventually lead a system to a new state", this study examines two kinds of scenarios: exploratory, where the inquiry proceeds from the present situation to a future one, and normative, where the search proceeds from a desirable future to the present. For each type of scenarios three sets of theoretical problems are examined: 1) the role of values, which must be explicitely recognized and used as such; 2) the concept of causality, which in a scenario has to be dealt with differently than in an "ordinary" scientific research, 3) the problem of time and the need to break the linear conception of the link existing between events. Finally, the study examines a number of practical tools and criterias (coherence, interaction, …) with which to build and to judge scenarios.