Asset Revaluation and the Existential Politics of Climate Change
Asset Revaluation and the Existential Politics of Climate Change
复制标题
DOI：
10.1017/s0020818320000296
复制
发表时间：
2021-01-01
影响因子：
7.8
通讯作者：
Hale, Thomas N.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Colgan, Jeff D.;Green, Jessica F.;Hale, Thomas N.
虽然学者们通常将气候变化建模为全球集体行动的挑战，但我们提供了一个基于当前和未来资产重估的气候政治动态理论。气候政治可以理解为加速气候变化的资产所有者（如化石燃料工厂）和易受气候变化影响的资产所有者（如沿海财产）之间的竞争。迄今为止，“气候强迫”资产持有者的阻挠一直是有效气候政策的一大障碍。但随着气候变化和脱碳政策的推进，气候强迫和“气候脆弱”资产的持有者将随着时间的推移失去部分甚至全部资产价值，并随之失去政治权力的基础。从国家以下一级到跨国一级，对立利益之间的这种动态竞争在许多政治冲突地点可能会加剧。随着气候变化的发生，气候政治将变得越来越关乎生存，有可能重塑国家内部和国家之间的政治联盟。这种转变可能会进一步破坏自由国际秩序（LIO）;随着各国以不同的速度和力度制定亲气候政策，它们将有动机偏离现有的贸易和经济一体化安排。
Whereas scholars have typically modeled climate change as a global collective action challenge, we offer a dynamic theory of climate politics based on the present and future revaluation of assets. Climate politics can be understood as a contest between owners of assets that accelerate climate change, such as fossil fuel plants, and owners of assets vulnerable to climate change, such as coastal property. To date, obstruction by "climate-forcing" asset holders has been a large barrier to effective climate policy. But as climate change and decarbonization policies proceed, holders of both climate-forcing and "climate-vulnerable" assets stand to lose some or even all of their assets' value over time, and with them, the basis of their political power. This dynamic contest between opposing interests is likely to intensify in many sites of political contestation, from the subnational to transnational levels. As it does so, climate politics will become increasingly existential, potentially reshaping political alignments within and across countries. Such shifts may further undermine the Liberal International Order (LIO); as countries develop pro-climate policies at different speeds and magnitudes, they will have incentives to diverge from existing arrangements over trade and economic integration.