PROBABILITY METHOD TO DETERMINE SHEAR STRENGTH OF SLIDE ZONE CLAY FOR NEOGENIC LANDSLIDE IN THREE GORGES RESERVOIR AREA
PROBABILITY METHOD TO DETERMINE SHEAR STRENGTH OF SLIDE ZONE CLAY FOR NEOGENIC LANDSLIDE IN THREE GORGES RESERVOIR AREA
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发表时间：
2007
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通讯作者：
Wang Kong-wei
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作者：
Wang Kong-wei
岩土体在自然界中存在，具有较强的空间变异性和区域性。滑带黏土的区域性是三峡库区滑坡破坏特征相似的重要原因之一。根据滑带黏土特征，将三峡库区划分为坝址至庙河、庙河至奉节（秭归盆地除外）、奉节至重庆及秭归盆地三部分，其中滑带黏土抗剪强度数据391组通过统计确定各部分抗剪强度参数的概率分布，这些分布即为先验分布。根据这些分布，可以通过贝叶斯估计来推测新生滑坡滑带粘土的抗剪强度参数。对于试验值较少的滑坡，可以通过贝叶斯估计来优化抗剪强度参数；对于没有试验值的新生滑坡，可以通过贝叶斯估计得到邻近相似滑坡的一些数据，得到滑带粘土的抗剪强度参数。该方法已在三峡库区典型的新生滑坡钱江坪滑坡(2.4×107 m3)中得到验证。通过贝叶斯估计获得滑带粘土抗剪强度参数的方法对于防治三峡库区新生滑坡具有重要意义。
Rock and soil are existing in the nature with strong spatial variation and regionality.The regional property of slide zone clay is one of important reasons that some characters of landslide failure are similar in the Three Gorges reservoir area.According to characteristics of slide zone clay,the Three Gorges reservoir area is divided into three parts:from dam site to Miaohe,from Miaohe to Fengjie except Zigui basin,from Fengjie to Chongqing and Zigui basin,where 391 groups of shear strength data of slide zone clay have been collected.Probability distribution of shear strength parameters of each part is determined by statistics;and these distributions are the prior ones.Based on these distributions,the shear strength parameters of slide zone clay of neogenic landslide can be presumed by Bayes estimation.For landslide with a few test values,the shear strength parameters can be optimized by Bayes estimation;and for neogenic landslide without test values,the shear strength parameters of slide zone clay can be obtained with some data of neighbouring and similar landslides by Bayes estimation.The method has been proved by Qianjiangping landslide(2.4×107 m3),a typical neogenic landslide in the Three Gorges reservoir area.The method that shear strength parameters of slide zone clay are gained by Bayes estimation is important to prevent and control neogenic landslide in the Three Gorges reservoir area.