Self-oscillations and predictability in climate dynamics
Self-oscillations and predictability in climate dynamics
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气候动力学中的自振荡和可预测性
DOI：
10.3402/tellusa.v36i1.11460
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
C. Nicolis
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Nicolis
考虑了一类引起持续振荡的非线性气候模式。演化方程被转换成“标准形式”，使人们能够区分两种不同类型的量：径向变量，它服从封闭方程，具有很强的稳定性；以及相变量，它非常不稳定。结果表明，由于这些特殊的稳定性性质，作用于系统的扰动或随机波动倾向于解除对振荡行为的调节。结论是，这种现象是导致可预测性逐渐丧失的根本原因。DOI：10.1111/j.1600-0870.1984.tb00217.x
A class of non-linear climatic models giving rise to sustained oscillations is considered. The evolution equations are cast into a “normal form” which allows one to distinguish between two different types of quantities: a radial variable, which obeys a closed equation and has strong stability properties; and a phase variable which is extremely labile. It is shown that as a result of these peculiar stability properties, the disturbances or random fluctuations acting on the system tend to deregulate the oscillatory behavior. It is concluded that such a phenomenon is a basic reason for progressive loss of predictability. DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.1984.tb00217.x