Revisiting the relationship between El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and the East Asian winter monsoon
Revisiting the relationship between El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and the East Asian winter monsoon
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DOI：
10.1002/joc.5702
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发表时间：
2018-07
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Shui Yu;Jianqi Sun
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Shui Yu;Jianqi Sun
以往的研究表明，厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）和东亚冬季风（EAWM）之间的关系在20世纪70年代后期后显着减弱。在本研究中，这种关系进一步分析的基础上，不同类型的ENSO的影响。结果表明，ENSO与东亚夏季风的关系与ENSO的类型有关。东太平洋（EP）ENSO与EAWM的关系较强，而中太平洋（CP）ENSO与EAWM的关系较弱。在Niño 3指数中EP和CP ENSO事件的混合导致ENSO和EAWM之间的统计关系减弱。如果从Niño 3指数中剔除纯CP ENSO事件，结果表明EP ENSO事件在70年代后期以后仍然通过与菲律宾海反气旋（PSAC）和东亚槽（EAT）的强联系对东亚夏季风产生影响，与70年代后期以前的情况相似。相反，CPENSO与PSAC和EAT之间的联系相对较弱，从而导致CPENSO与EAWM之间的关系减弱。混合ENSO对东亚夏季风的影响与EP ENSO相似。因此，EP和MIX ENSO事件在过去半个世纪对东亚冬季气候的影响是稳定的，这对东亚冬季气候的预测具有重要意义。
Previous studies have indicated that the relationship between El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) weakened significantly after the late 1970s. In this study, the relationship is further analysed based on the impact of different ENSO types. It is found that the relationship between ENSO and the EAWM is related to the ENSO's types. The relationship with the EAWM is strong for eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO but weak for central Pacific (CP) ENSO. The blend of EP and CP ENSO events in the Niño3 index results in a weakened statistical relationship between ENSO and the EAWM. If the pure CP ENSO events are removed from the Niño3 index, the results show that EP ENSO still exerts influence on the EAWM after the late 1970s via its strong connections with the Philippine Sea anticyclone (PSAC) and East Asian trough (EAT), similar to the period before the late 1970s. In contrast, the connections between CP ENSO and the PSAC and EAT are relatively weak, consequently resulting in a weakened relationship between CP ENSO and the EAWM. The influence of mixed (MIX) ENSO on the EAWM is similar to that of EP ENSO. Thus, the EP and MIX ENSO events have had a stable influence on the East Asian winter climate over the past half century, which is significant for the prediction of the East Asian winter climate.