Quantifying Zika: Advancing the Epidemiology of Zika With Quantitative Models
Quantifying Zika: Advancing the Epidemiology of Zika With Quantitative Models
复制标题
DOI：
10.1093/infdis/jix437
复制
发表时间：
2017-12-15
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Johansson, Michael A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Keegan, Lindsay T.;Lessler, Justin;Johansson, Michael A.
当寨卡病毒（ZIKV）在美洲出现时，人们对其生物学、发病机制和传播潜力知之甚少，由于感染一般较轻，而且没有建立监测系统，疫情的范围在很大程度上被隐藏起来。先天性缺陷和格林-巴利综合征的激增警告了世界ZIKV的危险。在数据有限的情况下，定量模型在减少不确定性和指导全球ZIKV响应方面至关重要。在这里，我们回顾了一些用于评估ZIKV相关严重后果风险的模型，ZIKV流行的潜在速度和规模，以及ZIKV风险的地理分布。这些模型提供了重要的见解，并突出了与ZIKV和其他新兴病原体相关的重大未解决问题。
When Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in the Americas, little was known about its biology, pathogenesis, and transmission potential, and the scope of the epidemic was largely hidden, owing to generally mild infections and no established surveillance systems. Surges in congenital defects and Guillain-Barr, syndrome alerted the world to the danger of ZIKV. In the context of limited data, quantitative models were critical in reducing uncertainties and guiding the global ZIKV response. Here, we review some of the models used to assess the risk of ZIKV-associated severe outcomes, the potential speed and size of ZIKV epidemics, and the geographic distribution of ZIKV risk. These models provide important insights and highlight significant unresolved questions related to ZIKV and other emerging pathogens.