The impact of verification area design on tropical cyclone targeted observations based on the CNOP method
The impact of verification area design on tropical cyclone targeted observations based on the CNOP method
复制标题
验证区设计对CNOP方法热带气旋定向观测的影响
DOI：
10.1007/s00376-011-0120-x
复制
发表时间：
2011-08
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
M. Mu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhou F. F.;M. Mu
本研究探讨了不同的验证区设计的敏感区确定的条件非线性最优扰动（hocP）方法的热带气旋目标观测的影响。第一奇异向量（FSV）方法，这是hocP的线性近似，识别的敏感区域，也进行了比较研究。通过对敏感区有效性的分析，提出了合理的验证区设计方案，并对2004年8月西北太平洋热带气旋Rananim进行了研究。设计了两组验证区域;一组改变了位置，另一组改变了大小和位置。与FSV及其敏感区域相比，hocP及其确定的敏感区域对核查区域的微小变化不太敏感。随着验证区域的较大变化，hocP和FSV以及其识别的敏感区域发生了实质性变化。在减少验证区域的预测误差方面，hocP确定的敏感区域比使用FSV确定的敏感区域更有益。验证区的设计是气旋预报的重要环节。检验区的大小应根据集合预报结果中气旋可能出现的位置来设计。此外，从旋风分离器的动力学机理分析了旋风分离器的发展趋势，为旋风分离器的进一步研究提供了参考。当验证区域的大致位置确定后，尺寸或位置的微小变化对CNOP的结果影响不大。
This study investigated the impact of different verification-area designs on the sensitive areas identified using the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) method for tropical cyclone targeted observations. The sensitive areas identified using the first singular vector (FSV) method, which is the linear approximation of CNOP, were also investigated for comparison. By analyzing the validity of the sensitive areas, the proper design of a verification area was developed.Tropical cyclone Rananim, which occurred in August 2004 in the northwest Pacific Ocean, was studied. Two sets of verification areas were designed; one changed position, and the other changed both size and position. The CNOP and its identified sensitive areas were found to be less sensitive to small variations of the verification areas than those of the FSV and its sensitive areas. With larger variations of the verification area, the CNOP and the FSV as well as their identified sensitive areas changed substantially. In terms of reducing forecast errors in the verification area, the CNOP-identified sensitive areas were more beneficial than those identified using FSV. The design of the verification area is important for cyclone prediction. The verification area should be designed with a proper size according to the possible locations of the cyclone obtained from the ensemble forecast results. In addition, the development trend of the cyclone analyzed from its dynamic mechanisms was another reference. When the general position of the verification area was determined, a small variation in size or position had little influence on the results of CNOP.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
3.1
作者：
O. Rivière;G. Lapeyre;O. Talagrand
通讯作者：
O. Rivière;G. Lapeyre;O. Talagrand
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
B. Ancell;C. Mass
通讯作者：
B. Ancell;C. Mass
DOI：
10.5065/d6f18wnm
发表时间：
1997-07
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
X. Zou;F. Vandenberght;M. Pondeca;Y. Kuo
通讯作者：
X. Zou;F. Vandenberght;M. Pondeca;Y. Kuo
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2009
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
王斌;谭晓伟
通讯作者：
王斌;谭晓伟
影响因子：
8
作者：
Chun‐Chieh Wu;P. Lin;S. Aberson;T. Yeh;Wei-Peng Huang;Kun‐Hsuan Chou;Jing-Shan Hong;Guo-Chen Lu;Chin-Tzu Fong;Kuan-Chien Hsu;I. Lin;P. Lin;Ching‐Hwang Liu
通讯作者：
Chun‐Chieh Wu;P. Lin;S. Aberson;T. Yeh;Wei-Peng Huang;Kun‐Hsuan Chou;Jing-Shan Hong;Guo-Chen Lu;Chin-Tzu Fong;Kuan-Chien Hsu;I. Lin;P. Lin;Ching‐Hwang Liu