Evaluation of the subjective probabilities of survival in the health and retirement study
Evaluation of the subjective probabilities of survival in the health and retirement study
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DOI：
10.2307/146285
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发表时间：
1995-01-01
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
McGarry, K
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hurd, MD;McGarry, K
在健康与退休研究中，受访者被问及他们能活到 75 岁或 85 岁的机会。我们分析这些回答，以确定他们的行为是否像生存概率，他们的平均值是否接近人群的平均概率，以及他们是否与其他变量存在类似于与实际死亡率结果的相关性。我们发现，通常它们确实表现得像概率，并且它们确实聚合为总体概率。然而，最值得注意的是它们与其他变量共变，就像实际结果随变量变化一样。例如，社会经济地位较高的受访者生存概率较高，而吸烟的受访者生存概率较低。我们的结论是，这些主观概率的度量在不确定性下的跨期决策模型中具有巨大的潜在用途。
In the Health and Retirement Study respondents were asked about the chances they would live to 75 or to 85. We analyze these responses to determine if they behave like probabilities of survival, if their averages are close to average probabilities in the population, and if they have correlations with other variables that are similar to correlations with actual mortality outcomes. We find that generally they do behave like probabilities and that they do aggregate to population probabilities. Most remarkable, however, is that they covary with other variables in the same way actual outcomes vary with the variables. For example, respondents with higher socioeconomic status give higher probabilities of survival, whereas respondents who smoke give lower probabilities. We conclude that these measures of subjective probabilities have great potential use in models of intertemporal decision-making under uncertainty.