Macroeconomics and Methodology
Macroeconomics and Methodology
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宏观经济学和方法论
DOI：
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发表时间：
1996
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
C. Sims
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Sims
或然性推理是经济学话语中必不可少的。在任何学科中都是如此，就像在经济学中一样，数据收集受到限制，对所研究现象的信念对于不能拖延的决策至关重要。一些经济学家最近已经放弃了形式上的概率推理，部分原因是对专业计量经济学家的处方感到合理的不满。然而，这种偏离的方向相互矛盾，从长远来看是不可持续的。应该更广泛地认识到，在宏观经济学中，使用稳步发展的概率建模技术的认真应用工作一直在稳步增加。
Probabilistic reasoning is essential to discourse in economics. This is true in any discipline in which, as in economics, data collection is constrained and beliefs about the phenomena being studied are crucial to decisions that cannot be delayed. Some economists have recently turned away from form probabilistic inference, in part because of legitimate discontent with the prescriptions of specialized econometricians. However, this turning away has gone in mutually inconsistent directions and is in the long run unsustainable. It should be more widely recognized that careful applied work in macroeconomics, using steadily advancing probabilistic modeling techniques, has been steadily increasing.