Comparison of Three Tropical Cyclone Intensity Datasets
Comparison of Three Tropical Cyclone Intensity Datasets
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发表时间：
2007
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通讯作者：
Chunmei Hu
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作者：
Chunmei Hu
本文分析了西北太平洋三个主要预报中心1988-2003年16年的热带气旋强度资料，中国气象局（CMA）、东京区域专业气象中心（RSMC东京）和美国联合台风警报中心（JTWC）。结果表明，有显着的差异（在1%的显着性水平），在三个中心之间的TC的强度，与最大的差异为相同的TC超过30 m s-1。TC上空的飞行侦察可以在一定程度上减小这种差异。建立了一个气候和持续性预报模式，研究了不同预报中心的初始资料对TC强度预报的影响。结果表明，4年独立检验的均方根误差（RMSE）最大的是使用JTWC的数据，而最小的是使用RSMC东京的数据。24小时强度预报的平均绝对偏差CMA和RSMC东京数据之间为2.5 m s-1，CMA和JTWC数据之间为4.0 m s-1，最大偏差达21 m s-1。初值问题的存在增加了西北太平洋热带气旋强度预报的难度。
Analyzed in this paper are the 16-yr (1988-2003) tropical cyclone (TC) intensity data from three major forecast centers of the western North Pacific, i.e., China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Tokyo (RSMC Tokyo), and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the United States. Results show that there are significant discrepancies (at 1% significance level) in the intensity of TCs among the three centers, with a maximum difference for the same TC over 30 m s-1. The flight reconnaissance over TC can minish the discrepancy to some extent. A climatic and persistent prediction model is set up to study the impact of initial data from different forecast centers on the prediction of TC intensity. It is obtained that the root mean square error (RMSE) of a 4-yr independent test is the largest using data from JTWC, while the smallest using data from RSMC Tokyo. Average absolute deviation in 24-h intensity prediction is 2.5 m s-1 between CMA and RSMC Tokyo data, and 4.0 m s-1 between CMA and JTWC data, with a maximum deviation reaching 21 m s-1. Such a problem in the initial value increases the difficulty in intensity prediction of TCs over the western North Pacific.