CPI Bias from Supercenters: Does the BLS Know that Wal-Mart Exists?
CPI Bias from Supercenters: Does the BLS Know that Wal-Mart Exists?
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超级中心的 CPI 偏差：劳工统计局知道沃尔玛的存在吗？
DOI：
10.3386/w10712
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发表时间：
2004
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Ephraim S. Leibtag
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Hausman;Ephraim S. Leibtag
Hausman (2003) 讨论了目前 CPI 计算中的四个偏差来源。美国劳工统计局采用的基于纯粹价格指数的价格调查方法无法成功解决偏差问题。我们讨论了衡量出口替代偏差的一阶偏差效应的经济和计量经济学方法。我们演示了扫描仪数据的使用，该数据允许实施解决问题的技术。相比之下，当前的 BLS 程序没有正确处理出口替代偏差，并且表现得好像沃尔玛不存在一样。然而，沃尔玛提供相同食品的平均价格比传统超市低约 15%-25%。美国劳工统计局链接了沃尔玛的较低价格。我们发现，更合适的分析方法是，当沃尔玛进入某个地理市场时，将在沃尔玛购物的选择视为消费者的“新商品”。这种方法导致支出加权平均价格计算不断更新。我们发现我们的方法与 BLS 方法之间存在显着差异。我们的估计是，BLS CPI-U 国内食品通胀过高约 0.32 至 0.42 个百分点，这导致每年估计通胀率上行约 15%。
Hausman (2003) discusses four sources of bias in the present calculation of the CPI. A pure price' index based approach of surveying prices as done by the BLS cannot succeed in solving the problems of bias. We discuss economic and econometric approaches to measuring the first order bias effects from outlet substitution bias. We demonstrate the use of scanner data that permits implementation of techniques that allow the problem to be solved. In contrast, the current BLS procedure does not treat correctly outlet substitution bias and acts as if Wal-Mart does not exist. Yet, Wal-Mart offers identical food items at an average price about 15%-25% lower than traditional supermarkets. The BLS links out' Wal-Mart's lower prices. We find that a more appropriate approach to the analysis is to let the choice to shop at Wal-Mart be considered as a new good' to consumers when Wal-Mart enters a geographic market. This approach leads to a continuously updated expenditure weighted average price calculation. We find a significant difference between our approach and the BLS approach. Our estimates are that the BLS CPI-U food at home inflation is too high by about 0.32 to 0.42 percentage points, which leads to an upward bias in the estimated inflation rate of about 15% per year.