Bayesian reliability analysis of complex series/parallel systems of binomial subsystems and components
Bayesian reliability analysis of complex series/parallel systems of binomial subsystems and components
复制标题
DOI：
10.2307/1270120
复制
发表时间：
1990-10
期刊：
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
H. Martz;R. A. Waller
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
H. Martz;R. A. Waller
本文提出了一种估计由独立二项串联或并联子系统和部件组成的复杂系统可靠性（或可用度）的贝叶斯方法。也允许使用重复的相同组件或子系统。该方法在系统、子系统和组件级别使用测试数据或先验数据（可能两者都使用或都不使用）。在整个过程中假设Beta先验分布。该方法的动机和说明由以下问题。需要估计美国某商用核电沸水堆低压冷却剂注入系统的按需不可用性。三个数据源被用来计算后验分布的整体系统的需求不可用性，从所需的估计。三个数据源的结果的敏感性进行了检查。一个FORTRAN计算机程序实现的过程是可用的。
A Bayesian procedure is presented for estimating the reliability (or availability) of a complex system of independent binomial series or parallel subsystems and components. Repeated identical components or subsystems are also permitted. The method uses either test or prior data (perhaps both or neither) at the system, subsystem, and component levels. Beta prior distributions are assumed throughout. The method is motivated and illustrated by the following problem. It is required to estimate the unavailability on demand of the low-pressure coolant injection system in a certain U.S. commercial nuclear-power boiling-water reactor. Three data sources are used to calculate the posterior distribution of the overall system demand unavailability from which the required estimates are obtained. The sensitivity of the results to the three data sources is examined. A FORTRAN computer program for implementing the procedure is available.