Comment on “Voter Turnout and the National Election Studies”
Comment on “Voter Turnout and the National Election Studies”
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评论《选民投票率与全国选举研究》
DOI：
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发表时间：
2003
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Michael D. Martinez
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Michael D. Martinez
巴里·伯顿（Barry Burden）最近在《政治分析》（Political Analysis）上发表的一篇文章提醒我们，在总统选举年，内斯（National Election Studies）中自我报告的投票率与基于投票年龄人口（VAP）的“官方投票率”之间的差距稳步扩大，并指出回应率下降是罪魁祸首。将基线从VAP改变为VEP（有投票资格的人群）显著改变了这些结论，并指出面板效应是罪魁祸首。差距的增加不是线性的，但它确实在1996年突然出现。内斯自我报告的投票率和VEP估计之间的差距是在总统选举年高于在非选举年，自我报告的投票率是长期小组参与者之间的跨部门的受访者在多选举小组。
A recent article by Barry Burden in Political Analysis alerts us to a steadily increasing gap during presidential election years between self-reported turnout in the NES (National Election Studies) and “official turnout” figures based on the voting-age population (VAP), and points to declining response rates as a culprit. Changing the baseline from the VAP to the VEP (voting-eligible population) significantly changes these conclusions, and point to panel effects as a culprit. The rise in the gap was not linear, but it does emerge rather suddenly in 1996. Gaps between NES self-reported turnout and VEP estimates are higher in presidential election years than in off-years, and self-reported turnout is higher among long-term panel participants than among cross-section respondents in multielection panels.