A simulation of biomes on the Tibetan Plateau and their responses to global climate change
A simulation of biomes on the Tibetan Plateau and their responses to global climate change
复制标题
DOI：
10.1659/0276-4741(2000)020
复制
发表时间：
2000-02-01
影响因子：
1.6
通讯作者：
Ni, J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ni, J
利用改进的基于过程的平衡地球生物圈模式（BIOME 3China），在10'网格上模拟了青藏高原潜在生物群落。模拟的生物群落基本上是在良好的协议与潜在的自然植被图的基础上，两个地图之间的数值比较，使用三角洲V统计（三角洲V = 0.38）。一个包含硫酸盐气溶胶的海气耦合环流模式被用来驱动一个到下个世纪末的双重温室气体情景。模拟植被在变化的气候条件下与CO：！还使用Δ V统计量（Δ V = 0.4）比较了500 ppmv浓度和基线生物群系图。气候变化将导致温带荒漠、高山草原、荒漠和冰/极荒漠的大幅度减少，冷温针叶林、温带灌丛/草甸和温带草原的大幅度增加，以及所有植被带的总体西北移动。除了模拟生物群落分布，BIOME 3China还预测了每个网格单元的净初级生产力（NPP）。预测的年度NPP和160森林NPP测量之间的比较显示，它们之间的协议与线性回归，尽管有许多问题，如现场数据的质量。在CO2浓度增加的情景下，预测的年NPP模式与当前气候下的模式相同，但各生物群落的NPP将显著增加。用空气冻结指数模拟的青藏高原现今冻土与实际冻土分布十分相似。气候变化后，连续冻土与间断冻土的分界线将向北移动1-2度。连续多年冻土将大部分消失，而非多年冻土区将大大增加。随着植被带的北移，多年冻土将发生移动。多年冻土的消失和无冻土区的扩大将加速青藏高原的沙漠化。
The improved process based equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model (BIOME3China) was run under the present climate to model the potential biomes on the Tibetan Plateau on a 10' grid. The simulated biome was basically in good agreement with a potential natural vegetation map based on a numerical comparison between two maps using the Delta V statistic (Delta V = 0.38). A coupled ocean- atmosphere general circulation model including sulfate aerosols was used to drive a double greenhouse gas scenario to the end of the next century. The simulated vegetation under changed climate with a CO:! concentration of 500 ppmv and a baseline biome map were also compared using the Delta V statistic (Delta V = 0.4). The climate change would cause a large reduction in the temperate deserts alpine steppe, desert, and ice/polar desert, a large increase in the cold-temperate conifer forest, temperate shrubland/meadow, and temperate steppe, and a general northwestward shift of ail vegetation zones. In addition to simulation of biome distribution, BIOME3China also predicted net primary production (NPP) of each grid cell. Comparisons between predicted annual NPP and 160 forest NPP measurements show an agreement between them with a linear regression, despite many problems, such as the quality of the field data. The pattern of predicted annual NPP in the scenario with enhanced CO2 concentration was the same as that under the present climate; however, the NPP of each biome would increase significantly. Present permafrost simulated using the air frost index was quite similar to the actual frozen ground distribution on the Tibetan Plateau. After the change in climate, the boundary between continuous and discontinuous permafrost would shift toward the north of the plateau by about 1-2 degrees in latitude. The continuous permafrost would mostly disappear, whereas the no-permafrost area would greatly increase. The movement of permafrost would take place with the shift of vegetation zones to the north. The disappearance of permafrost and the expansion of no-permafrost areas would accelerate the desertification of the Tibetan Plateau.