Revisiting drivers of energy intensity in China during 1997–2007: A structural decomposition analysis
Revisiting drivers of energy intensity in China during 1997–2007: A structural decomposition analysis
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2013.11.053
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发表时间：
2014-04
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Lin Zeng;Ming Xu;S. Liang;S. Zeng;Tianzhu Zhang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Lin Zeng;Ming Xu;S. Liang;S. Zeng;Tianzhu Zhang
自2000年以来，中国能源强度下降速度放缓。在2002-2005年期间，这一数字实际上有所增加，扭转了长期趋势。因此，必须查明能源强度波动的驱动因素。本文运用投入产出结构分解分析方法，研究了1997-2007年能源结构、部门能源效率、生产结构、最终需求结构和最终需求类别构成的变化对中国能源强度波动的贡献。我们通过关闭家庭的投入产出模型，将家庭能源消费纳入研究。结果表明，1997-2007年期间，部门能源效率的提高对能源强度的下降贡献最大。2002-2007年期间中国能源强度的增加是由于最终需求构成和生产结构的变化。最终需求构成的变化主要是由于出口份额的增加，而生产结构的变化主要是由于中国经济向能源密集型产业的转变。能源结构和最终需求结构的变化对中国能源强度波动的贡献不大。从消费角度看，能源密集型产品出口的增长和基础设施需求的增加是2002-2007年期间能源密集度增加的主要原因。
The decline of China's energy intensity slowed since 2000. During 2002–2005 it actually increased, reversing the long-term trend. Therefore, it is important to identify drivers of the fluctuation of energy intensity. We use input–output structural decomposition analysis to investigate the contributions of changes in energy mix, sectoral energy efficiency, production structure, final demand structure, and final demand category composition to China's energy intensity fluctuation during 1997–2007. We include household energy consumption in the study by closing the input–output model with respect to households. Results show that sectoral energy efficiency improvements contribute the most to the energy intensity decline during 1997–2007. The increase in China's energy intensity during 2002–2007 is instead explained by changes in final demand composition and production structure. Changes in final demand composition are mainly due to increasing share of exports, while changes in production structure mainly arise from the shift of Chinese economy to more energy-intensive industries. Changes in energy mix and final demand structure contribute little to China's energy intensity fluctuation. From the consumption perspective, growing exports of energy-intensive products and increasing infrastructure demands explain the majority of energy intensity increase during 2002–2007.