Uncertainty Analysis of the Estimated Risk in Formal Safety Assessment
Uncertainty Analysis of the Estimated Risk in Formal Safety Assessment
复制标题
正式安全评估中估计风险的不确定性分析
DOI：
10.3390/su10020321
复制
发表时间：
2018-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Longhui Gang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Molin Sun;Zhongyi Zheng;Longhui Gang
An uncertainty analysis is required to be carried out in formal safety assessment (FSA) by the International Maritime Organization. The purpose of this article is to introduce the uncertainty analysis technique into the FSA process. Based on the uncertainty identification of input parameters, probability and possibility distributions are used to model the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, respectively. An approach which combines the Monte Carlo random sampling of probability distribution functions with the a-cuts for fuzzy calculus is proposed to propagate the uncertainties. One output of the FSA process is societal risk (SR), which can be evaluated in the two-dimensional frequency–fatality (FN) diagram. Thus, the confidence-level-based SR is presented to represent the uncertainty of SR in two dimensions. In addition, a method for time window selection is proposed to estimate the magnitude of uncertainties, which is an important aspect of modeling uncertainties. Finally, a case study is carried out on an FSA study on cruise ships. The results show that the uncertainty analysis of SR generates a two-dimensional area for a certain degree of confidence in the FN diagram rather than a single FN curve, which provides more information to authorities to produce effective risk control measures.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.asoc.2015.08.005
发表时间：
2015
期刊：
Appl. Soft Comput.
影响因子：
--
作者：
Komal
通讯作者：
Komal
DOI：
10.7708/ijtte.2014.4(1).05
发表时间：
2014-03
期刊：
International Journal for Traffic and Transport Engineering
影响因子：
--
作者：
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影响因子：
3.8
作者：
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P. Baraldi;E. Zio
影响因子：
4.7
作者：
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通讯作者：
N. Pedroni;E. Zio;E. Ferrario;A. Pasanisi;M. Couplet
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
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通讯作者：
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