American Journal of Epidemiology Original Contribution Association of Particulate Air Pollution with Daily Mortality the China Air Pollution and Health Effects Study
American Journal of Epidemiology Original Contribution Association of Particulate Air Pollution with Daily Mortality the China Air Pollution and Health Effects Study
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通讯作者：
Renjie Chen;H. Kan;Bing-heng Chen;Wei Huang;Z. Bai;G. Song;G. Pan
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作者：
Renjie Chen;H. Kan;Bing-heng Chen;Wei Huang;Z. Bai;G. Song;G. Pan
中国是世界上颗粒物含量最高的少数几个国家之一。然而，在中国仅进行了少量的颗粒物健康研究。本研究的目的是研究1996年至2008年中国16个城市空气动力学直径小于10 lm（PM 10）的颗粒物与每日死亡率的关系。采用两阶段贝叶斯分层模型获得城市和国家平均估计数。Poisson回归模型结合自然样条平滑函数用于调整死亡率的长期和季节性趋势以及其他随时间变化的协变量。中国16个城市的PM10日平均浓度范围为52 lg/m3至156 lg/m3。16个城市的综合分析显示，PM10与死亡率有显著相关：PM10的2天移动平均值增加10-lg/m3，（95%后验间隔（PI）：0.18，0.52）总死亡率增加0.44%（95% PI：0.23，0.64）心血管死亡率增加，呼吸道死亡率增加0.56%（95% PI：0.31，0.81）。女性、老年人和教育程度低的居民似乎更容易受到PM 10的影响。总之，这项中国最大规模的颗粒物空气污染流行病学研究表明，短期暴露于PM 10与死亡风险增加有关。环境空气污染是由固体颗粒物和气态污染物组成的复杂混合物。在各种空气污染物中，颗粒物显示出对健康不利影响的最有力证据（1）。短期暴露于颗粒物与不良健康影响有关，包括死亡率增加，住院率和急诊就诊率增加，慢性呼吸道疾病恶化和肺功能下降（2）。最近在北美和欧洲进行的多城市分析提供了进一步的证据，支持颗粒物与心肺疾病短期关联的一致性和可解释性（3-5）。这些研究大多数在发达国家进行;据我们所知，只有一项多城市研究，即亚洲公共卫生和空气污染（PAPA）项目，研究了亚洲发展中国家颗粒物对健康的急性影响（6）。中国是世界上颗粒物含量最高的少数国家之一（7）。然而，在中国仅进行了少量的颗粒物健康研究（8）。PAPA项目仅包括中国大陆的两个城市-上海和武汉。还有...
China is one of the few countries with some of the highest particulate matter levels in the world. However, only a small number of particulate matter health studies have been conducted in China. The study objective was to examine the association of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 10 lm (PM 10) with daily mortality in 16 Chinese cities between 1996 and 2008. Two-stage Bayesian hierarchical models were applied to obtain city-specific and national average estimates. Poisson regression models incorporating natural spline smoothing functions were used to adjust for long-term and seasonal trends of mortality, as well as other time-varying covariates. The averaged daily concentrations of PM 10 in the 16 Chinese cities ranged from 52 lg/m 3 to 156 lg/m 3. The 16-city combined analysis showed significant associations of PM 10 with mortality: A 10-lg/m 3 increase in 2-day moving-average PM 10 was associated with a 0.35% (95% posterior interval (PI): 0.18, 0.52) increase of total mortality, 0.44% (95% PI: 0.23, 0.64) increase of cardiovascular mortality, and 0.56% (95% PI: 0.31, 0.81) increase of respiratory mortality. Females, older people, and residents with low educational attainment appeared to be more vulnerable to PM 10 exposure. Conclusively, this largest epidemiologic study of particulate air pollution in China suggests that short-term exposure to PM 10 is associated with increased mortality risk. Ambient air pollution is a complex mixture composed of both solid particles and gaseous pollutants. Among the various air pollutants, particulate matter shows the strongest evidence for adverse health effects (1). Short-term exposure to particulate matter has been linked to adverse health effects, including increased mortality, increased rates of hospital admissions and emergency department visits, exacerbation of chronic respiratory conditions, and decreased lung function (2). Recent multicity analyses conducted in North America and Europe provide further evidence supporting the coherence and plausibility of short-tem association of particulate matter with cardiorespiratory disorders (3–5). Most of these studies were conducted in developed countries; to our knowledge, only 1 multicity study, the Public Health and Air Pollution in Asia (PAPA) project, has examined the acute health effects of particulate matter in Asian developing countries (6). China is one of the few countries with highest particulate matter levels in the world (7). However, only a small number of health studies of particulate matter have been conducted in China (8). The PAPA project includes only 2 mainland Chinese cities—Shanghai and Wuhan. There remains …