Models agree on forced response pattern of precipitation and temperature extremes
Models agree on forced response pattern of precipitation and temperature extremes
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DOI：
10.1002/2014gl062018
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发表时间：
2014-12-16
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Knutti, R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fischer, E. M.;Sedlacek, J.;Knutti, R.
模式对强降水和极端温度的预测存在很大的不确定性。我们表明，个别模拟之间的分歧主要来自内部变异，而模型同意非常好的强迫信号，在没有内部变异的情况下的变化。协议是高的强迫强降水响应的空间格局，表现出在大多数陆地地区，特别是欧亚大陆和北美的强化。强降水的强迫响应比年平均降水的强迫响应更强。同样，模式同意的强制响应模式的极端炎热，显示最大的加剧中纬度的土地区域。因此，人们对温度和降水极端值因某种程度的变暖而被迫变化的信心很高。虽然在现实中，内部可变性将叠加在该模式上，但从风险角度来看，决定极端温度和降水量变化的是被迫的反应。
Model projections of heavy precipitation and temperature extremes include large uncertainties. We demonstrate that the disagreement between individual simulations primarily arises from internal variability, whereas models agree remarkably well on the forced signal, the change in the absence of internal variability. Agreement is high on the spatial pattern of the forced heavy precipitation response showing an intensification over most land regions, in particular Eurasia and North America. The forced response of heavy precipitation is even more robust than that of annual mean precipitation. Likewise, models agree on the forced response pattern of hot extremes showing the greatest intensification over midlatitudinal land regions. Thus, confidence in the forced changes of temperature and precipitation extremes in response to a certain warming is high. Although in reality internal variability will be superimposed on that pattern, it is the forced response that determines the changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in a risk perspective.