Incidence and predictors of suicidal behaviors in a longitudinal sample of young adolescents
Incidence and predictors of suicidal behaviors in a longitudinal sample of young adolescents
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DOI：
10.1097/00004583-199806000-00011
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发表时间：
1998-06-01
影响因子：
13.3
通讯作者：
Addy, CL
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
McKeown, RE;Garrison, CZ;Addy, CL
目的：本分析探讨了青少年自杀行为的1年转移概率和基线预测因素。方法：青少年从两个阶段，以社区为基础的纵向研究分为自杀行为类别（企图，计划，意念，和无）的基线和随访年。计算类别间移动的转移概率，并使用多分类逻辑回归分析来检查自杀行为的预测因素。结果：在基线时无自杀行为的受试者中，1年内自杀企图的发生率为1.3%，计划和构想的发生率各为1.7%。增加家庭凝聚力对自杀企图具有保护作用（比值比[OR] = 0.9）。女性受试者比男性更可能报告计划（OR = 8.9）和构思（OR = 4.1）。冲动性增加（OR = 2.3）、既往自杀行为（OR = 10.6）和不良生活事件（OR = 1.1）是计划的重要预测因素。结论：虽然有许多自杀行为的预测因子，但假阳性率很高。关注近端的危险因素，特别是青少年发展中的压力源，可能会忽视潜在的精神障碍和家庭因素的生物和环境的基本作用。自杀和自杀行为是一系列不利因素的结果，需要采取一系列干预措施进行预防。
Objective: This analysis examines 1-year transition probabilities and baseline predictors for suicidal behaviors in young adolescents. Method: Adolescents from a two-stage, community-based longitudinal study were classified into suicidal behavior categories (attempt, plan, ideation, and none) for baseline and follow-up years. Transition probabilities for movement among categories were calculated, and polytomous logistic regression analysis was used to examine predictors of suicidal behaviors. Results: Among those with no suicidal behaviors at baseline, 1-year incidence rates were 1.3% for attempts and 1.7% each for plans and ideation. Increasing family cohesion was protective for suicide attempts (odds ratio [OR] = 0.9). Female subjects were more likely than males to report plans (OR = 8.9) and ideation (OR = 4.1). Increasing impulsivity (OR = 2.3), prior suicidal behavior (OR = 10.6), and undesirable life events (OR = 1.1) were significant predictors of plans. Conclusions: While there are a number of predictors of suicidal behaviors, the false-positive rate is high. Focusing on proximal risk factors, particularly stressors in adolescent development, may overlook the fundamental role of underlying mental disorder and familial factors-both biological and environmental. Suicide and suicidal behaviors are the result of a constellation of adverse factors requiring a range of interventions for prevention.