PROBABILISTIC QUANTIFICATION OF HAZARDS: A METHODOLOGY USING SMALL ENSEMBLES OF PHYSICS-BASED SIMULATIONS AND STATISTICAL SURROGATES
PROBABILISTIC QUANTIFICATION OF HAZARDS: A METHODOLOGY USING SMALL ENSEMBLES OF PHYSICS-BASED SIMULATIONS AND STATISTICAL SURROGATES
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DOI：
10.1615/int.j.uncertaintyquantification.2015011451
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发表时间：
2015-01-01
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Wolpert, Robert L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bayarri, M. J.;Berger, J. O.;Wolpert, Robert L.
本文提出了一种新的方法来评估由于大的火山雪崩的危险威胁的现场。该方法结合了：（i）火山物质流的数学模型;（ii）雪崩频率、体积和跳动的现场数据;（iii）流动事件的大规模数值模拟;（iv）使用统计方法来最大限度地减少计算成本，并捕捉不太可能的事件;（v）计算未来T年内在感兴趣的位置发生灾难性流动事件的概率;以及（vi）实现这些方法的创新计算方法。这一统一的列报方式收集了单独制定的要素，并纳入了对这一进程的新贡献。这里使用的现场数据和数值模拟受到许多来源的不确定性的影响，在评估危险时必须适当考虑这些不确定性。将用蒙特塞拉特岛苏弗里埃山火山的数据来证明这里提出的方法，那里有过去15年火山物质流动的比较完整的记录。这一方法可以推广到具有类似特征的其他火山地点，因为那里缺乏历史数据，无法进行这种高质量的分析。更一般地说，这一方法的核心是广泛适用的，可用于其他灾害情景，如洪水或火山灰羽流。
This paper presents a novel approach to assessing the hazard threat to a locale due to a large volcanic avalanche. The methodology combines: (i) mathematical modeling of volcanic mass flows; (ii) field data of avalanche frequency, volume, and runout; (iii) large-scale numerical simulations of flow events; (iv) use of statistical methods to minimize computational costs, and to capture unlikely events; (v) calculation of the probability of a catastrophic flow event over the next T years at a location of interest; and (vi) innovative computational methodology to implement these methods. This unified presentation collects elements that have been separately developed, and incorporates new contributions to the process. The field data and numerical simulations used here are subject to uncertainty from many sources, uncertainties that must be properly accounted for in assessing the hazard. The methodology presented here will be demonstrated with data from the Soufriere Hills Volcano on the island of Montserrat, where there is a relatively complete record of volcanic mass flows from the past 15 years. This methodology can be transferred to other volcanic sites with similar characteristics and where sparse historical data have prevented such high-quality analysis. More generally, the core of this methodology is widely applicable and can be used for other hazard scenarios, such as floods or ash plumes.