A Real-Time Convection-Allowing Ensemble Prediction System Initialized by Mesoscale Ensemble Kalman Filter Analyses
A Real-Time Convection-Allowing Ensemble Prediction System Initialized by Mesoscale Ensemble Kalman Filter Analyses
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DOI：
10.1175/waf-d-15-0013.1
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发表时间：
2015-10
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
C. Schwartz;G. Romine;M. Weisman;R. Sobash;Kathryn R. Fossell;Kevin W. Manning;S. Trier
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Schwartz;G. Romine;M. Weisman;R. Sobash;Kathryn R. Fossell;Kevin W. Manning;S. Trier
2013年5月和6月，美国国家大气研究中心利用天气研究与预报（WRF）模式为中尺度可预测性实验场项目提供了3公里水平网格间距下48小时实时对流综合预报。集合预报由连续循环、有限区域、中尺度（15公里）集合卡尔曼滤波（EnKF）数据同化系统的分析成员每天在0000和1200 UTC初始化两次，并以降水和恶劣天气引导为重点进行评估。从GFS分析初始化的确定性WRF模型预测也进行了检验。主观上，集合预报经常在观测到恶劣天气的地区产生强对流区。客观统计证实了这些主观印象，并表明该集合在预测降水和恶劣天气事件方面是熟练的。在1200 UTC初始化的预报在降水方面更有技巧。
AbstractIn May and June 2013, the National Center for Atmospheric Research produced real-time 48-h convection-allowing ensemble forecasts at 3-km horizontal grid spacing using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model in support of the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment field program. The ensemble forecasts were initialized twice daily at 0000 and 1200 UTC from analysis members of a continuously cycling, limited-area, mesoscale (15 km) ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation system and evaluated with a focus on precipitation and severe weather guidance. Deterministic WRF Model forecasts initialized from GFS analyses were also examined. Subjectively, the ensemble forecasts often produced areas of intense convection over regions where severe weather was observed. Objective statistics confirmed these subjective impressions and indicated that the ensemble was skillful at predicting precipitation and severe weather events. Forecasts initialized at 1200 UTC were more skillful regarding precipita...