Spatio-temporal Object-Oriented Bayesian Network modelling of the COVID-19 Italian outbreak data.

Spatio-temporal Object-Oriented Bayesian Network modelling of the COVID-19 Italian outbreak data.
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DOI:
10.1016/j.spasta.2021.100529
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发表时间:
2022-06
期刊:
影响因子:
2.3
通讯作者:
De Giovanni L
De Giovanni L
中科院分区:
数学3区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Vitale V;D'Urso P;De Giovanni L

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利用面向对象贝叶斯网络对意大利COVID-19疫情的空间流行动态进行建模,以静态和动态方式探索每周发病率、重症监护病房占用率和死亡率之间的依赖关系。采用自回归方法,通过空间和时间滞后变量将空间和时间分量嵌入模型中。该模型可以成为支持或验证决策者决策战略的有效工具。
The spatial epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak in Italy were modelled by means of an Object-Oriented Bayesian Network in order to explore the dependence relationships, in a static and a dynamic way, among the weekly incidence rate, the intensive care units occupancy rate and that of deaths. Following an autoregressive approach, both spatial and time components have been embedded in the model by means of spatial and time lagged variables. The model could be a valid instrument to support or validate policy makers’ decisions strategies.
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