Seasonality in local food markets and consumption: evidence from Tanzania
Seasonality in local food markets and consumption: evidence from Tanzania
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DOI：
10.1093/oep/gpw013
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发表时间：
2016-07-01
影响因子：
1.2
通讯作者：
Gilbert, Christopher L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kaminski, Jonathan;Christiaensen, Luc;Gilbert, Christopher L.
本文重新探讨了非洲生计的季节性程度。它使用了 19 年 20 个市场的月度食品价格和坦桑尼亚 3 波具有全国代表性的家庭小组调查。引入三角规范来测量季节性差距。当样本较短且季节性定义不明确时，它们产生的向上偏差比常见的虚拟变量方法要小。平均而言，玉米价格的季节性差距估计为 27%；大米的税率为15%。在这两种情况下，它都比国际参考市场高出两倍半到三倍。食品价格季节性并不是食品价格波动的主要因素，但它确实会导致城市贫困家庭和农村食品净销售者热量摄入量出现约 10% 的季节性变化。农村粮食净购买家庭似乎能够平稳消费。在非洲发展辩论中忽视季节性还为时过早。
This paper revisits the extent of seasonality in African livelihoods. It uses 19 years of monthly food prices from 20 markets and 3 waves of nationally representative household panel surveys from Tanzania. Trigonometric specifications are introduced to measure the seasonal gap. When samples are short and seasonality is poorly defined, they produce less upward bias than the common dummy variable approach. On average, the seasonal gap for maize prices is estimated to be 27%; it is 15% for rice. In both cases, it is two and a half to three times higher than in the international reference market. Food price seasonality is not a major contributor to food price volatility, but it does translate into seasonal variation in caloric intake of about 10% among poor urban households and rural net food sellers. Rural net food-buying households appear able to smooth their consumption. It is premature to ignore seasonality in the African development debate.