Long-term climate-related changes in somatic growth and population dynamics of Hokkaido chum salmon

Long-term climate-related changes in somatic growth and population dynamics of Hokkaido chum salmon
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北海道鲑鱼体细胞生长和种群动态与气候相关的长期变化

DOI:
10.1007/s10641-010-9725-7
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发表时间:
2011
影响因子:
1.4
通讯作者:
et al
et al
中科院分区:
环境科学与生态学3区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Seo;H.;Kaeriyama;M.;et al

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我们采用多元回归和路径分析,以研究区域和更大的空间尺度的气候/海洋条件的生长,生存和人口动态的北海道鲑鱼(Oncorhynchus凯塔)的影响。在1至4岁的大麻哈鱼的生长变化估计规模分析和反算方法,使用规模的4岁的成年人返回石狩河在北海道,日本,在1943-2005年。生长的鲑鱼在年龄1是少在20世纪40年代至20世纪70年代中期相比,从20世纪80年代中期到现在的时期。另一方面,自20世纪80年代以来,2岁、3岁和4岁的大麻哈鱼的生长一直在下降。路径分析表明,在鄂霍次克海1岁的增长是直接受温暖的海面温度与全球变暖。1岁时的增长直接导致了更高的存活率,并间接导致了更大的人口规模。随后,在白令海,较大的人口规模直接与3岁的增长下降,间接与较短的成年叉长度,尽管缺乏海表温度,浮游动物生物量和增长之间的关系,在年龄2至4。因此,较高的增长在年龄1相关的全球变暖积极影响的存活率的少年鲑鱼在鄂霍次克海。较高的存活率似乎反过来又导致白令海由于承载能力有限,对2至4岁的生长和成熟产生了依赖种群密度的影响。
We used multiple regression and path analysis to examine the effects of regional and larger spatial scales of climatic/oceanic conditions on the growth, survival, and population dynamics of Hokkaido chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta). Variability in the growth of chum salmon at ages 1 to 4 was estimated from scale analysis and the back-calculation method using scales of 4-year-old adults returning to the Ishikari River in Hokkaido, Japan, during 1943–2005. Growth of chum salmon at age 1 was less during the period from the 1940s to the mid-1970s compared to the period from the mid-1980s to the present. On the other hand, growth of chum salmon at ages 2, 3, and 4 has declined since the 1980s. Path analysis indicated that growth at age 1 in the Okhotsk Sea was directly affected by warmer sea surface temperatures associated with global warming. The increased growth at age 1 led directly to higher survival rates and indirectly to larger population sizes. Subsequently, in the Bering Sea, the larger population size was directly associated with decreased growth at age 3 and indirectly associated with shorter adult fork lengths despite the lack of relationships among sea surface temperature, zooplankton biomass, and growth at ages 2 to 4. Therefore, higher growth at age 1 related to global warming positively affected the survival rate of juvenile chum salmon in the Okhotsk Sea. The higher survival rates in turn appear to be causing a population density-dependent effect on growth at ages 2 to 4 and maturation in the Bering Sea due to limited carrying capacity.
DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198507499.003.0006
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