Spatial and space-time distribution of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in China, 2005-2014.

Spatial and space-time distribution of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in China, 2005-2014.
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DOI:
10.1186/s12936-016-1646-2
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发表时间:
2016-12-19
期刊:
影响因子:
3
通讯作者:
Guo Y
Guo Y
中科院分区:
医学3区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Hundessa SH;Williams G;Li S;Guo J;Chen L;Zhang W;Guo Y

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尽管中国的疟疾负担有所下降,但该疾病仍然是一个重大的公共卫生问题,在全国范围内周期性暴发且存在空间差异。更好地了解疟疾的空间和时间特征对于巩固疾病控制和消除规划至关重要。本研究旨在了解2005-2009年中国间日疟原虫和恶性疟原虫疟疾的空间和时空分布。 Global Moran’s I 统计数据用于检测当地恶性疟和间日疟在县级的空间分布。空间和时空扫描统计分别用于检测空间和时空聚类。间日疟和恶性疟均表现出空间自相关性。间日疟原虫最有可能的空间集群出现在2005年至2009年的安徽省北部和2010年至2014年的云南省西部。恶性疟原虫的最可能的空间集群包括2005年至2011年的云南省西部的几个县、2012年至2013年的广西和2014年的安徽省。 2005年至2009年期间,安徽省北部和云南省西部分别发现了间日疟和恶性疟。空间和时空聚类分析确定了间日疟和恶性疟的高风险区域和时期。两种疟疾类型均表现出显着的空间和时空变化。与间日疟不同的是,我国恶性疟的高发区已从西部转移到东部。需要进一步研究来检查疟疾传播风险的空间变化,并确定高风险地区风险升高的根本原因。本文的在线版本 (doi:10.1186/s12936-016-1646-2) 包含补充材料,可供授权用户使用。
Despite the declining burden of malaria in China, the disease remains a significant public health problem with periodic outbreaks and spatial variation across the country. A better understanding of the spatial and temporal characteristics of malaria is essential for consolidating the disease control and elimination programme. This study aims to understand the spatial and spatiotemporal distribution of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in China during 2005–2009. Global Moran’s I statistics was used to detect a spatial distribution of local P. falciparum and P. vivax malaria at the county level. Spatial and space–time scan statistics were applied to detect spatial and spatiotemporal clusters, respectively. Both P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria showed spatial autocorrelation. The most likely spatial cluster of P. vivax was detected in northern Anhui province between 2005 and 2009, and western Yunnan province between 2010 and 2014. For P. falciparum, the clusters included several counties of western Yunnan province from 2005 to 2011, Guangxi from 2012 to 2013, and Anhui in 2014. The most likely space–time clusters of P. vivax malaria and P. falciparum malaria were detected in northern Anhui province and western Yunnan province, respectively, during 2005–2009. The spatial and space–time cluster analysis identified high-risk areas and periods for both P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria. Both malaria types showed significant spatial and spatiotemporal variations. Contrary to P. vivax, the high-risk areas for P. falciparum malaria shifted from the west to the east of China. Further studies are required to examine the spatial changes in risk of malaria transmission and identify the underlying causes of elevated risk in the high-risk areas. The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-016-1646-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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