Expected climate change impacts on soil erosion rates: A review
Expected climate change impacts on soil erosion rates: A review
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DOI：
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发表时间：
2004
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
M. Nearing;F. F. Pruski-F.;M. O'Neal
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Nearing;F. F. Pruski-F.;M. O'Neal
摘要：预计全球变暖将导致更有力的水文循环，包括更多的总降雨量和更频繁的高强度降雨事件。在世纪，美国的降雨量和强度平均增加，根据气候变化模型，预计在世纪它们将继续增加。这些降雨量的变化，沿着温度、太阳辐射和大气CO2浓度的预期变化，将对土壤侵蚀速率产生重大影响。气候变化对土壤水蚀的影响所涉及的过程是复杂的，包括降雨量和强度、降雨天数、雨雪比例、植物生物量生产、植物残体分解率、土壤微生物活动、蒸散率的变化，以及为适应新的气候状况而必须改变的土地利用。本文回顾了作者最近进行的几项研究，这些研究涉及气候变化对土壤侵蚀速率的潜在影响。结果令人担忧。美国大部分地区的降雨侵蚀力水平可能正在上升。在降雨量增加的地方，侵蚀和径流将以更大的速度增加：侵蚀增加与年降雨量增加的比率约为1.7。即使在年降雨量减少的情况下，与生物量生产减少有关的系统反馈也可能导致土壤更容易受到侵蚀。研究结果还表明，农民对气候变化的反应可能会加剧或改善预期的侵蚀率变化。
ABSTRACT: Global warming is expected to lead to a more vigorous hydrological cycle, including more total rainfall and more frequent high intensity rainfall events. Rainfall amounts and intensities increased on average in the United States during the 20th century, and according to climate change models they are expected to continue to increase during the 21st century. These rainfall changes, along with expected changes in temperature, solar radiation, and atmospheric C02 concentrations, will have significant impacts on soil erosion rates. The processes involved in the impact of climate change on soil erosion by water are complex, involving changes in rainfall amounts and intensities, number of days of precipitation, ratio of rain to snow, plant biomass production, plant residue decomposition rates, soil microbial activity, evapo-transpiration rates, and shifts in land use necessary to accommodate a new climatic regime. This paper reviews several recent studies conducted by the authors that address the potential effects of climate change on soil erosion rates. The results show cause for concern. Rainfall erosivity levels may be on the rise across much of the United States. Where rainfall amounts increase, erosion and runoff will increase at an even greater rate: the ratio of erosion increase to annual rainfall increase is on the order of 1.7. Even in cases where annual rainfall would decrease, system feedbacks related to decreased biomass production could lead to greater susceptibility of the soil to erode. Results also show how farmers9 response to climate change can potentially exacerbate, or ameliorate, the changes in erosion rates expected.