The economic effects of the UK government's proposed Brexit deal
The economic effects of the UK government's proposed Brexit deal
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DOI：
10.1111/twec.12770
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发表时间：
2019-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Young, Garry
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hantzsche, Arno;Kara, Amit;Young, Garry
我们分析的重点是英国政府拟议的脱欧协议可能如何影响经济。首先，我们通过对照历史证据审查当前提案，评估贸易、移民、外国直接投资、生产力和对欧盟预算的贡献可能发生的变化。其次，我们使用国家研究所全球经济计量模型（NiGEM）来分析宏观经济影响。我们的评估是，英国脱欧后与欧盟的贸易，特别是服务业的成本将会更高。这可能会对英国的生活水平产生不利影响。我们的核心估计是，如果政府提议的脱欧协议得以实施，那么从长远来看，人均 GDP 将比英国留在欧盟时低 3% 左右。如果英国继续留在欧盟的关税同盟中，或者如果援引爱尔兰的保障措施，人均 GDP 仍将受到 2% 的打击。这些估计代表了我们对政府拟议的脱欧协议的经济影响的深思熟虑的看法，但它们本身是不确定的，因为历史上没有一个国家离开欧盟等主要贸易区的先例。
The focus of our analysis is on how the UK government's proposed Brexit deal is likely to affect the economy. First, we assess how trade, migration, foreign direct investment, productivity and contributions to the EU budget might change by reviewing current proposals against historical evidence. Second, we use the National Institute Global Econometric Model (NiGEM) to analyse the macroeconomic effects. Our assessment is that trade with the EU, especially in services, would be more costly after Brexit. This would be likely to have adverse effects on living standards in the UK. Our central estimate is that if the government's proposed Brexit deal is implemented, then GDP in the longer term will be around 3% lower per head than it would have been had the UK stayed in the EU. If the UK were to stay in a customs union with the EU, or if the Irish backstop position was to be invoked, there would still be a hit to GDP per capita of 2%. These estimates represent our considered view of the economic impact of the government's proposed Brexit deal, but they are themselves uncertain as there is no historical precedent of a country leaving a major trading block such as the EU.