External Financial Fragility and the 1998-1999 Brazilian Currency Crisis
External Financial Fragility and the 1998-1999 Brazilian Currency Crisis
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外部金融脆弱性和 1998-1999 年巴西货币危机
DOI：
10.1080/01603477.2000.11490261
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发表时间：
2000
影响因子：
1
通讯作者：
António Alves
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
L. F. de Paula;António Alves
涉及某种汇率锚的稳定方案的经验表明，一般来说，这种计划首先会使通货膨胀率突然下降，同时汇率显著升值。导致国际收支经常账户大幅收缩，主要原因是进口价值增加。通常，由此产生的赤字伴随着大量的资本账户盈余，从而不仅使前者能够得到融资，而且使该国的国际储备量能够增加。后一种增长是由于稳定计划的初步成功吸引了大量外国资本进入该国，再加上普遍的自由结构改革。更高的国内利率对外部融资的额外吸引力通常被用来进一步强化这些因素。实行紧缩的货币政策和给予外国投资者更大的自由，造成了足够大的利率差，吸引套利资本流入。然而，外国资本的不断流入可能导致汇率的更大真实的升值，从而导致进口的进一步增加和出口的下降。
Experience with stabilization programs involving some kind of exchange anchor shows that, generally speaking, such plans at first generate an abrupt drop in the rate of inflation, accompanied by marked appreciation in the rate of exchange.1 The local currency appreciates as a result of differential evolution by domestic and foreign prices in a context where the nominal rate of exchange remains stable, causing the balance of payments current account to contract substantially, due principally to the increase in the value of imports. Normally, the resulting deficit is accompanied by a large capital account surplus, thus not only enabling the former to be financed, but allowing the volume of the country's international reserves to grow. The latter increase occurs as a result of the surge of foreign capital entering the country drawn by the stabilization plan's initial success, combined generally with liberal structural reforms. Higher domestic interest rates-an added attraction to external financing-are normally used to reinforce these factors still further. The introduction of tight monetary policies and greater freedom for foreign investors create an interest rate differential sufficiently large to attract arbitrage capital inflows. The increasing influx of foreign capital, however, can lead to a still greater real appreciation of the exchange rate, leading to a further increase in imports and also a downturn in exports.
管理新兴经济体的资产价格泡沫
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
Yuki Sakashita;Yoshio Ishiguro;Kento Ohtani;Takanori Nishino;and Kazuya Takeda.;荻野靖之;坂田健太郎
通讯作者：
坂田健太郎