Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020
Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020
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DOI：
10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.18.2000632
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发表时间：
2020-05-07
期刊：
影响因子：
19
通讯作者：
Edmunds, W. John
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jit, Mark;Jombart, Thibaut;Edmunds, W. John
对来自两个监测数据库的重症监护入院率拟合指数增长模型，以确定全国封锁前英国可能的冠状病毒病（COVID-19）病例数、重症监护入院率和疫情增长。我们估计，3月23日，自2月16日以来，中位数为114，000（95%可信区间（CrI）：78，000 - 173，000）例新病例和258（95% CrI：220-319）例新重症监护报告，累计病例为527，000（95% CrI：362，000 -797.000）例。
An exponential growth model was fitted to critical care admissions from two surveillance databases to determine likely coronavirus disease (COVID-19) case numbers, critical care admissions and epidemic growth in the United Kingdom before the national lockdown. We estimate, on 23 March, a median of 114,000 (95% credible interval (CrI): 78,000-173,000) new cases and 258 (95% CrI: 220-319) new critical care reports, with 527,000 (95% CrI: 362,000-797.000) cumulative cases since 16 February.