Seasonal occurrence and abundance of dabbling ducks across the continental United States: Joint spatio-temporal modelling for the Genus Anas
Seasonal occurrence and abundance of dabbling ducks across the continental United States: Joint spatio-temporal modelling for the Genus Anas
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DOI：
10.1111/ddi.12960
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发表时间：
2019-09-01
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Prosser, Diann J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Humphreys, John M.;Murrow, Jennifer L.;Prosser, Diann J.
目的 估计野生动物的分布和丰度是物种保护、野生动物管理和栖息地优先排序的一项重要任务。尽管已经提出了许多方法和工具来完成这项任务，但在准确预测高度流动物种的出现和丰度方面仍然存在一些挑战。候鸟的地理分布范围广泛，当地的栖息地随季节变化，是高度流动物种的典范，也是全球水禽保护和管理的焦点。为了为物种保护和管理提供信息，我们的目标是利用公民科学数据来估计美国大陆十种涉水鸭的出现情况和相对丰度。地点美国本土。方法我们应用空间和时间明确的贝叶斯分层模型来联合估计鸭属十种涉水鸭的季节特定发生率和相对丰度。我们的条件依赖模型设计使得相对丰度估计能够通过发生概率来了解，同时考虑共享模型组件之间的累积空间和时间误差。结果 结果表明，虽然涉足鸭的分布在大陆范围内几乎没有年际变化，但当地的相对丰度可能每年有所不同。与高度流动的迁徙物种相称，估计表明存在相当大的年内变化，出现概率、当地丰度和栖息地偏好因季节和物种而异。主要结论我们的方法提供了一个强大而灵活的框架，用于量化年内/年际鸭子的出现和相对丰度，同时考虑空间、时间和数据收集偏差。我们相信模型制作的地图可用于为整个美国大陆的水禽保护和管理提供信息。
Aim Estimating the distribution and abundance of wildlife is an essential task in species conservation, wildlife management and habitat prioritization. Although a host of methods and tools have been proposed to accomplish this undertaking, several challenges remain in accurately forecasting occurrence and abundance for highly mobile species. Exhibiting extensive geographic ranges with seasonally varying local occupancy, migratory ducks are exemplar highly mobile species and are foci for waterfowl conservation and management globally. With the goal of informing species conservation and management, our aim was to leverage citizen science data to estimate occurrence and relative abundance for ten dabbling duck species across the continental United States. Location Conterminous United States. Methods We applied spatially and temporally explicit Bayesian hierarchical modelling to jointly estimate season-specific occurrence and relative abundance for ten dabbling duck species in the Genus Anas. Our conditionally dependent model design enabled relative abundance estimates to be informed by occurrence probability while accounting for cumulative spatial and temporal errors across shared model components. Results Outcomes suggest that although dabbling duck distributions show little inter-annual variability at the continental scale, local relative abundances may differ year to year. Commensurate with being highly mobile migratory species, estimates indicate considerable intra-annual variation with occurrence probability, local abundance and habitat preferences differing by season and species. Main conclusions Our approach offers a powerful and flexible framework for quantifying intra-/inter-annual duck occurrence and relative abundance while accounting for spatial, temporal and data collection biases. We believe that model produced maps can be applied to inform waterfowl conservation and management throughout the continental United States.