Effects of climate migration on town-to-city transitions in the United States: proactive investments in civil infrastructure for resilience and sustainability
Effects of climate migration on town-to-city transitions in the United States: proactive investments in civil infrastructure for resilience and sustainability
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DOI：
10.1088/2634-4505/ac33ef
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发表时间：
2021-09
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Alexandra Maxim;E. Grubert
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Alexandra Maxim;E. Grubert
气候变化是一种危害风险放大器，有助于改变降水和温度模式，从而改变一个地区的风险概况。现有基础设施往往装备不足，无法吸收与灾害频率和严重程度增加相关的冲击，但实施整体恢复计划的积极措施很少，而且范围往往有限。随着气候变化的进展，气候变化引起的移民正变得越来越频繁和可能，各区域对弹性基础设施的具体需求也可能发生变化。随着接收社区的增长，人们迁移到实际风险或感知风险较低的地区，预计会增加对已建成基础设施的需求，并改变治理需求。预测需求增长可以实现主动投资，而不是被动投资。在这里，我们分析了预期的气候移民模式对美国社区增长的影响，利用美国环境保护局的综合气候和土地利用情景数据集，以说明性地评估国内移民如何改变区域模式，以实现基础设施规划的一个特别突出的目标：城镇成为城市并经历基础设施和治理复杂性质的变化的“临界点”。预计2010-2100年美国城镇到城市的快速城市化模式与历史上（1950-2010年）的模式不同，特别是从西南部（包括加利福尼亚州）向南部平原（包括德克萨斯州）转移。预计气候变化将使这种模式向北和向东转变，在过去的发展战略可能不适合该地区的地方，导致土地利用变化和对民用基础设施的新需求。城市的未来不是预先确定的：这一说明性分析强调，尽管存在很大的不确定性，但关于气候变化、移民模式和基础设施发展的可推广的最佳实践的充分信息可以支持对移民进行主动规划。在预计会吸引气候移民的地区，积极和适合地区的民用基础设施投资可以促进气候变化下的复原力、可持续性和正义，强调安全、充足和公平的基础设施。
Climate change is a hazard risk amplifier and contributes to changing precipitation and temperature patterns that alter an area’s risk profile. Existing infrastructure is often ill-equipped to absorb shocks associated with increased hazard frequency and severity, but active measures to implement holistic resilience plans are rare and often limited in scope. As climate change progresses, climate change-induced migration is becoming more frequent and likely, with probable changes to regionally specific needs for resilient infrastructure. People relocating to areas with actual or perceived lower risk is expected to add demand for built infrastructure and change governance needs as receiving communities grow. Anticipating demand growth can enable proactive rather than reactive investment. Here we analyze the impact of anticipated climate migration patterns on community growth in the United States (US), leveraging the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios dataset to illustratively evaluate how domestic migration might alter regional patterns for a particularly salient target of infrastructure planning: ‘tipping points’ where towns become cities and experience qualitative changes in infrastructural and governance complexity. Projected 2010–2100 town-to-city rapid urbanization patterns are different from historical (1950–2010) patterns in the US, notably shifting from the Southwest (including California) to the Southern Plains (including Texas). Climate change is expected to shift this pattern north and east, contributing to land use change and new demand for civil infrastructure in places where past development strategies might not be regionally appropriate. Urban futures are not predetermined: this illustrative analysis highlights that despite deep uncertainty, sufficient information about climate change, migration patterns, and generalizable best practices for infrastructural development exists to support proactive planning for migration. Proactive and regionally appropriate investment in civil infrastructure in regions expected to attract climate migration can facilitate resilience, sustainability, and justice under climate change, emphasizing safe, sufficient, and equitable infrastructure.