Long-Term Global Trends in Crop Yield and Production Reveal No Current Pollination Shortage but Increasing Pollinator Dependency
Long-Term Global Trends in Crop Yield and Production Reveal No Current Pollination Shortage but Increasing Pollinator Dependency
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DOI：
10.1016/j.cub.2008.08.066
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发表时间：
2008-10-28
期刊：
影响因子：
9.2
通讯作者：
Klein, Alexandra M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Aizen, Marcelo A.;Garibaldi, Lucas A.;Klein, Alexandra M.
有证据表明，由于当地和全球环境退化，传粉媒介正在减少[1 - 4]。由于人类饮食的相当大一部分直接或间接依赖于动物授粉[5]，因此授粉动物种群的减少如何影响全球作物产量的问题至关重要[6 - 8]。使用广泛的粮农组织数据集[9]，我们比较了45年系列（1961 - 2006）的产量，以及依赖授粉者和非依赖授粉者作物的总产量和耕地面积[5]。我们分别调查了发达国家和发展中国家的时间趋势，因为农业集约化程度的差异以及社会经济和环境条件可能会影响产量和传粉媒介[10 - 13]。自1961年以来，农作物产量（百万吨/公顷）一直以年均1.5%的速度增长。在发达国家和发展中国家，依赖授粉者的作物和不依赖授粉者的作物之间的时间趋势相似，因此不支持授粉者短缺正在影响全球范围内的作物产量的观点。然而，我们进一步报告说，由于依赖传粉者的作物种植面积不成比例地增加，农业变得更加依赖传粉者。如果种植依赖传粉者的作物的趋势继续下去，在不久的将来，对传粉者服务的需求将大大增加。
There is evidence that pollinators are declining as a result of local and global environmental degradation [1-4]. Because a sizable proportion of the human diet depends directly or indirectly on animal pollination [5], the issue of how decreases in pollinator stocks could affect global crop production is of paramount importance [6-8]. Using the extensive FAO data set [9], we compared 45 year series (1961-2006) in yield, and total production and cultivated area of pollinator-dependent and nondependent crops [5]. We investigated temporal trends separately for the developed and developing world because differences in agricultural intensification, and socioeconomic and environmental conditions might affect yield and pollinators [10-13]. Since 1961, crop yield (Mt/ha) has increased consistently at average annual growth rates of similar to 1.5%. Temporal trends were similar between pollinator-dependent and nondependent crops in both the developed and developing world, thus not supporting the view that pollinator shortages are affecting crop yield at the global scale. We further report, however, that agriculture has become more pollinator dependent because of a disproportionate increase in the area cultivated with pollinator-dependent crops. If the trend toward favoring cultivation of pollinator-dependent crops continues, the need for the service provided by declining pollinators will greatly increase in the near future.