Reassessing the effect of economic growth on wellbeing in less-developed countries, 1980-2003
Reassessing the effect of economic growth on wellbeing in less-developed countries, 1980-2003
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DOI：
10.1007/s12116-007-9003-7
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发表时间：
2007-06-01
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Beckfield, Jason
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brady, David;Kaya, Yunus;Beckfield, Jason
关于发展的辩论受到增长共识的很大影响：这种共识认为，经济增长应当是欠发达国家的首要优先事项，因为它最能有效地改善世界穷人的福祉。我们比较了增长的影响，其他独立变量在一个不平衡的面板分析多达109个最不发达国家和580个观察在六个时间点（1980年，1985年，1990年，1995年，2000年和2003年）。我们的因变量包括热量消耗、婴儿存活概率、1 - 5年存活概率、女性预期寿命和男性预期寿命。首先，我们发现国内生产总值（GDP）对热量消耗，女性预期寿命和男性预期寿命有显着的积极影响。其次，GDP对婴儿和1 - 5人的存活概率没有显著影响。第三，在大多数模型中，生育率、城市化和中学入学率的影响大于GDP。生育率、城市化和中学教育的更强大影响不能简单地归因于GDP的间接影响。第四，我们发现，依赖变量没有强大的显着影响。第五，随着时间的推移，国内生产总值在改善热量消耗和婴儿及1至5岁儿童存活率方面的效果已经大大降低。我们推断，完全集中于经济增长以改善最不发达国家的福祉存在严重的局限性。
Development debates have been greatly influenced by the growth consensus: the conventional wisdom that economic growth should be the primary priority for less-developed countries (LDCs) because it most effectively improves the well-being of the world's poor. We compare the impact of growth to other independent variables in an unbalanced panel analysis of up to 109 LDCs and 580 observations across six time points (1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, and 2003). Our dependent variables include caloric consumption, infant survival probability, one-to-five year survival probability, female life expectancy, and male life expectancy. First, we find that gross domestic product (GDP) has significant positive effects on caloric consumption, female life expectancy, and male life expectancy. Second, GDP does not have robust effects on infant and one-to-five survival probabilities. Third, fertility, urbanization, and secondary school enrollment have larger effects than GDP in the majority of models. The more powerful effects of fertility, urbanization, and secondary schooling cannot simply be attributed to an indirect effect of GDP. Fourth, we find that dependency variables do not have robust significant effects. Fifth, over time, GDP has become much less effective at improving caloric consumption and infant and one-to-five survival. We infer that there are serious limitations to concentrating exclusively on economic growth to improve well-being in LDCs.