Risk of COVID-19 importation to the Pacific islands through global air travel
Risk of COVID-19 importation to the Pacific islands through global air travel
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DOI：
10.1017/s0950268820000710
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发表时间：
2020-03-23
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Hall, J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Craig, A. T.;Heywood, A. E.;Hall, J.
2020年1月30日，世卫组织宣布冠状病毒（COVID-19）为全球突发公共卫生事件。截至2020年3月12日，118个国家共报告了125048例COVID-19确诊病例。2020年3月12日，法属波利尼西亚报告了太平洋岛屿的首例病例；没有其他太平洋岛国或领土报告病例。我们分析的目的是展示旅行者如何将COVID-19带入太平洋岛屿，并讨论健全的卫生系统在保护健康和减少传播风险方面发挥的作用。我们使用计分工具分析旅行和全球卫生安全指数数据，按出发国和到达国对COVID-19输入风险进行定量估计。我们的分析表明，截至2020年3月12日，2019冠状病毒病可能输入太平洋岛屿的最高风险航线是从东亚国家（特别是中国、韩国和日本）到北太平洋机场（可能是关岛、北马里亚纳群岛联邦，或者在较小程度上是帕劳）；或从中国、日本、新加坡、美国或法国到南太平洋港口（可能是斐济、巴布亚新几内亚、法属波利尼西亚或新喀里多尼亚）。其他进口路线包括从其他东亚国家到关岛，以及从澳大利亚、新西兰和其他欧洲国家到南太平洋。该工具为评估COVID-19输入风险提供了一种有用的方法，可能在其他情况下也有用。
On 30 January 2020, WHO declared coronavirus (COVID-19) a global public health emergency. As of 12 March 2020, 125 048 confirmed COVID-19 cases in 118 countries had been reported. On 12 March 2020, the first case in the Pacific islands was reported in French Polynesia; no other Pacific island country or territory has reported cases. The purpose of our analysis is to show how travellers may introduce COVID-19 into the Pacific islands and discuss the role robust health systems play in protecting health and reducing transmission risk. We analyse travel and Global Health Security Index data using a scoring tool to produce quantitative estimates of COVID-19 importation risk, by departing and arriving country. Our analysis indicates that, as of 12 March 2020, the highest risk air routes by which COVID-19 may be imported into the Pacific islands are from east Asian countries (specifically, China, Korea and Japan) to north Pacific airports (likely Guam, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands or, to a less extent, Palau); or from China, Japan, Singapore, the United States of America or France to south Pacific ports (likely, Fiji, Papua New Guinea, French Polynesia or New Caledonia). Other importation routes include from other east Asian countries to Guam, and from Australia, New Zealand and other European countries to the south Pacific. The tool provides a useful method for assessing COVID-19 importation risk and may be useful in other settings.