Comparative infection modeling and control of COVID-19 transmission patterns in China, South Korea, Italy and Iran
Comparative infection modeling and control of COVID-19 transmission patterns in China, South Korea, Italy and Iran
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中国、韩国、意大利和伊朗 COVID-19 传播模式的比较感染模型和控制
DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141447
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发表时间：
2020-12-10
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Christakos, George
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
He, Junyu;Chen, Guangwei;Christakos, George
COVID-19 已成为一种流行病。不同地区和不同国家对 COVID-19 大流行的反应和控制的时间安排和性质各不相同，其在影响该疾病传播方面的作用一直存在争议。这项工作的重点是疾病的早期阶段，此时控制措施最为有效。我们提出了一种基于时间移动窗口的修改后的易感者-暴露-感染-移除模型（SEIR），以量化COVID-19的传播模式，并比较全球六个代表性地区疾病传播的时间进展：中国三个地区（浙江、广东和新疆）与三个国家（韩国、意大利和伊朗）。研究发现，在 COVID-19 传播的早期阶段，该疾病遵循一定的经验规律，该规律在所有考虑的地区都很常见。通过模拟实施强有力的社会疏远措施来评估这些措施可能对这三个国家的 COVID-19 疫情持续时间和严重程度产生的影响。在中国的三个地区，与测量相关的传播率遵循修正的正态分布（经验法则）。各地区重大突发公共卫生事件一级响应启动后反应迅速，一级响应启动后1-2天达到峰值，10-19天达到拐点，11-18天降至零。截至3月29日，死亡率分别为0.08%（浙江）、0.54%（广东）和3.95%（新疆）。随后的建模模拟基于这样的工作假设：韩国2月25日在浙江、意大利在2月25日在广东、伊朗在3月8日在新疆采取了类似的感染传播控制措施。结果显示，截至6月15日，累计感染病例可减少32.49%（韩国）、98.16%（意大利）和85.73%（伊朗）。与表面相对湿度相比，表面空气温度与 COVID-19 传播率的相关性更强。基于这些发现，疾病控制措施被证明对于拉平和缩小COVID-10病例曲线特别有效，可以有效降低疾病的严重程度并减轻医疗负担。所提出的经验法则和 SEIR 时间移动窗口模型也可用于研究全球传染病爆发。 (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. 保留所有权利。
The COVID-19 has become a pandemic. The timing and nature of the COVID-19 pandemic response and control varied among the regions and from one country to the other, and their role in affecting the spread of the disease has been debated. The focus of this work is on the early phase of the disease when control measures can be most effective. We proposed a modified susceptible-exposed-infected-removed model (SEIR) model based on temporal moving windows to quantify COVID-19 transmission patterns and compare the temporal progress of disease spread in six representative regions worldwide: three Chinese regions (Zhejiang, Guangdong and Xinjiang) vs. three countries (South Korea, Italy and Iran). It was found that in the early phase of COVID-19 spread the disease follows a certain empirical law that is common in all regions considered. Simulations of the imposition of strong social distancing measures were used to evaluate the impact that these measures might have had on the duration and severity of COVID-19 outbreaks in the three countries. Measure-dependent transmission rates followed a modified normal distribution (empirical law) in the three Chinese regions. These rates responded quickly to the launch of the 1st-level Response to Major Public Health Emergency in each region, peaking after 1-2 days, reaching their inflection points after 10-19 days, and dropping to zero after 11-18 days since the 1st-level response was launched. By March 29th, the mortality rates were 0.08% (Zhejiang), 0.54% (Guangdong) and 3.95% (Xinjiang). Subsequent modeling simulations were based on the working assumption that similar infection transmission control measures were taken in South Korea as in Zhejiang on February 25th, in Italy as in Guangdong on February 25th, and in Iran as in Xinjiang on March 8th. The results showed that by June 15th the accumulated infection cases could have been reduced by 32.49% (South Korea), 98.16% (Italy) and 85.73% (Iran). The surface air temperature showed stronger association with transmission rate of COVID-19 than surface relative humidity. On the basis of these findings, disease control measures were shown to be particularly effective in flattening and shrinking the COVID-10 case curve, which could effectively reduce the severity of the disease and mitigate medical burden. The proposed empirical law and the SEIR-temporal moving window model can also be used to study infectious disease outbreaks worldwide. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.