Estimating the effective reproduction number for pandemic influenza from notification data made publicly available in real time: A multi-country analysis for influenza A/H1N1v 2009
Estimating the effective reproduction number for pandemic influenza from notification data made publicly available in real time: A multi-country analysis for influenza A/H1N1v 2009
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DOI：
10.1016/j.vaccine.2010.05.010
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发表时间：
2011-01-29
期刊：
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
Beutels, Philippe
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hens, Niel;Van Ranst, Marc;Beutels, Philippe
在新出现的大流行（例如 2009 年 A/H1Nlv）的早期阶段，必须充分了解其传播性，这通常用再生数来概括。在一个国家受到影响之前，其政府可能希望对世界上以前受该疾病影响的地区的情况做出自己的评估。然而，获取详细数据是有问题的。唯一公开的包含大量国家信息的国际数据集是世界卫生组织每个国家的累计病例数。在本文中，我们展示了累积病例数的记录历史如何以及在哪些情况下为估计早期阶段和大量国家的有效再生数提供了有价值的信息。 (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. 保留所有权利。
In the early phase of an emerging pandemic such as A/H1Nlv 2009, it is essential to have a good under-standing of its transmissibility, which is often summarized by the reproductive number. Before a country is affected, its government may want to make their own assessment of what is going on in areas of the world that have previously been affected by the disease. However, having access to detailed data is problematic. The only publicly available international dataset with information for a large number of countries was the WHO cumulated case counts per country. In this paper, we show how and in which situations the recorded history of cumulated case counts provides valuable information to estimate the effective reproductive number in an early phase and for a large number of countries. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.