Characteristics and Macroeconomic Determinants of Youth Employment in Africa
Characteristics and Macroeconomic Determinants of Youth Employment in Africa
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非洲青年就业的特征和宏观经济决定因素
DOI：
10.1111/j.1467-8268.2013.12019.x
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Anyanwu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Anyanwu
本文的目的是介绍非洲青年就业的特点，并调查其宏观经济决定因素，以期提供一些解决方案。我们使用1991-2009年期间现有的横截面数据进行的经验估计表明，一个国家的国内投资率与整个非洲的青年就业率和撒哈拉以南地区的估计数呈显著正相关。然而，国内投资率与北非青年就业呈显著负相关。政府消费支出对撒哈拉以南非洲的青年就业产生了严重的负面影响。不断上升的通货膨胀与北非的青年就业有显著的负相关。人均实际国内生产总值水平对整个非洲和北非青年就业都有负面和统计上的重大影响。实际人均国内生产总值的二次项在符号上是正数，只有在整个非洲的青年就业估计中才有意义。我们发现，实际国内生产总值的增长对整个非洲、撒哈拉以南和北非的青年就业产生了积极和显著的影响。审议的其他重要变量包括全球化指标(外国直接投资和贸易开放)、对私营部门的信贷、信息和通信技术基础设施、教育、人口因素、制度化的民主、时间趋势、石油净出口/进口国和区域哑巴。主要政策影响包括：增加生产性国内投资；提高政府支出效益；改革财政体制以巩固各级政府的职能；有效管理外国直接投资以创造国内就业；改进非洲出口商品的多样化、竞争力和附加值；鼓励年轻人创业和获得融资；加强生产性基础设施；提高低技能劳动力的技能、改善培训和教育；促进有效民主，以制定有利于创造青年就业的政策；高效管理整个价值链的石油和其他自然资源。
The purpose of this paper is to present the characteristics of youth employment in Africa as well as investigate its macroeconomic determinants, with a view to proffering some solutions. Our empirical estimates, using available cross-sectional data over the period 1991–2009 show that a nation's domestic investment rate is found to be positively and significantly associated with youth employment in the overall Africa and sub-Saharan estimations. However, domestic investment rate is negatively and significantly associated with youth employment in North Africa. Government consumption expenditures negatively and significantly affect youth employment in sub-Saharan Africa. Rising inflation is negatively and significantly associated with youth employment in North Africa. The level of real GDP per capita has a negative and statistically significant effect in both the overall Africa and North Africa youth employment. The quadratic term of real GDP per capita is positive in sign and significant only in the youth employment estimation for the whole of Africa. We find that real GDP growth positively and significantly affects youth employment in the overall Africa, sub-Saharan and North Africa estimations. Other important variables considered are globalization indicators (FDI and trade openness), credit to the private sector, ICT infrastructure, education, demographic factors, institutionalized democracy, time trend, net oil-exporting/importing country, and regional dummies. Key policy implications include increased productive domestic investment; promoting government expenditure effectiveness; reforming the fiscal systems for consolidation by all levels of government; effective regulation of FDI for domestic job creation; improvements in the diversification, competitiveness and value addition of African export commodities; encouragement of entrepreneurship and access to financing for the youth; greater productive infrastructure development; up-skilling, better training and education for the low-skilled workforce; the promotion of effective democracy that will design policies friendly to youth job creation; and efficient management of oil and other natural resources throughout the value chain.